Luka Doncic can have a great game without 10 rebounds. When players like Luka deal with injuries, it shows up the most on the boards. I think Luka will save his energy for his scoring and pick his battles here. That's why you bring in guys like Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. In the last 2 games of Round 1, he only had 7 rebounds each. And may I add they could be considered "must win" games. Luka will have a few different fish to fry, and I don't think rebounds will be the biggest concern.

Luka went over this number early in the season against the Thunder. Their most recent game, in February, he went under 50. With his PRA set at 52, Doncic went over this number three times in his last eight games and once in his last five. Oklahoma City’s head coach, Mark Daigneault, will have Lu Dort on him all series with hopes to slow him down. Dort is an above average on-ball defender and with a great young defense behind him.

Daniel Gafford made a tremendous impact on the Mavericks after Dallas acquired the big man at the trade deadline from the Washington Wizards. Gafford was instrumental in helping Dallas win 16 of their final 19 games and was excellent on both ends of the court. Despite starting in Dallas opening round series against the Clippers, Gafford was used sparingly and also did not look like the same player that led the NBA in FG % in the regular season. This appears to be a more favorable matchup for him, in addition to Dallas losing Maxi Kleber who was playing around 25 minutes a game in round 1. I expect Gafford to absorb the bulk of those minutes and he should eclipse this combo line.

After a full week off the Oklahoma City Thunder’s offense may have issues against an improved Dallas Mavericks defense. One player that I do not expect to suffer is Jalen Williams. He has an arsenal of moves that are going to give this Mavericks team problems game to game. He quietly averaged 21 in their last series against the Pelicans, and I expect that to be boosted in round two. Take his game one over.

It was pretty clear in the first round that the Mavs offense goes as Kyrie goes. If he gets too passive and focuses his energy on being a stopper they can't score enough to beat the Clippers with regularity let alone this OKC team. OKC's pace is so much quicker than LAC, Mavs will need to attempt more shots and attack in transition and need Kyrie to get to the line 8-10 times a game if possible. Kyrie averaged 30.5 points in 2 games vs OKC in just 35.7 mins, shooting over 62% from the field. Barring a total blowout he's on the court 42+ minutes in Game 1.

Defense win titles, blah, blah, blah, In this series, 125 points wins games. There are under trends for both teams recently, but in their four meetings they produced: 221, 245, 257 and 246. OKC 5th in pace (100.85) and DAL 7th (100.60) and when they met: 103.88! OKC 3rd in EFG% and DAL 7th; both maintained top 8 EFG% vs the other. OKC 2nd in drive FG% and DAL 4th. Holmgren is so sleight and Gafford is so erratic and Lively is so young ... I see Kyrie and SGA getting to paint with abandon. These two bring out the speed and shot taking in one another and with extra rest you know OKC will be running at breakneck pace in Game 1 at home.

Rookie Dereck Lively II is in for.a bigger role this series after he played well vs. the Clippers (8.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg in 20.3 mpg). Maxi Kleber dislocated his shoulder, so another Mavericks big man has to step up. Top candidates are Daniel Gafford and Lively, and I'm betting it's Lively. The 7-1, 230-pounder earned 24.5 minutes per game over the last two against the Clippers, registering nine and seven rebounds. He's 8 for 8 from the floor in that span. Look for Jason Kidd to give Lively at least 25 minutes.

Generally need a reason not to back a home team in the NBA playoffs and I don't really see one here. Definitely might be some rust on the Thunder, but they are fully healthy and the Mavs aren't. Luka Doncic probably is sitting right now due to his knee if it were the regular season. Lu Dort could give him some problems defensively. Not that impressed with the Mavs beating the Clippers considering Kawhi Leonard was on one leg for the two games of the six he did play. Certainly doesn't mean Dallas won't win tonight, but Oklahoma City took three of four in the season series.

Kyrie Irving generates a lot of headlines because of his scoring prowess. However, he also averaged 5.0 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game during the regular season. In the playoffs, he has recorded at least 10 combined rebounds and assists in five of six games. During the regular season, he combined for at least 14 rebounds and assists in both of the two games that he played against the Thunder. With added minutes coming in the playoffs, this is a great matchup for Irving to hit this over.