The Oklahoma City Thunder were in a dire spot in game four but thanks to Shai Gilgeous Alexander pulled out a dramatic win. Points have now become harder to get as the series extends, but Chet Holmgren has the game to clear his points prop. He had a nice flurry of points in the second half of game four with a couple of deep shots, and needs to be more aggressive to get to the free throw line. Look for Holmgren to build off his game four performance and go over his points prop.

The pace of this series has been slow. And SGA has projected under the points he has scored on amazing mid range shooting. Let’s play regression here. Under.

The Thunder have given up on Josh Giddey. That means Holmgren draws Daniel Gafford. Accordingly, Chet will move away from the basket and facilitate, giving him the assists we need to go over. He had 5 potential assists last game. Pair it with rebounds

This matchup has slowed down a lot since explosive scorelines between them during the regular season. Watching the games it is apparent to see why...Luka Doncic can't run and the Mavs rarely score in transition. (Dallas also couldn't shoot FTs in Game 4, which helped keep that scoreline lower.) Luka, bothered by knee and ankle injuries, can still be effective in halfocurt sets, but his usage rate is down somewhat, and the Mavs usually milking the shot clock on possessions. Meanwhile, the Thunder has been leaning awfully hard on SGA as the offense often misfired in Games 3 and 4, though Luka & Co misfired more on Monday. Dallas on 18-7 "under" run; OKC 9-3 "under" run. Play Mavs-Thunder "Under"

Chet stepped up in Game 4 and provided OKC with a secondary scoring punch that they needed in order to even what has been a very competitive series. Chet logged 40 minutes in Game 4 which were the most minutes he has played in the playoffs. I expect him to receive similar PT/heavy minutes again tonight barring foul trouble. If we look at the rebound distributions in this series, I would offer that Chet is running cold and with the likelihood of him getting a significant bump in playing time, coupled with a RA line that he averages despite playing fewer than 30 MPG, this line looks much closer to his floor.

So far this series has followed the same pattern as the first round for the Mavs. Look flat Game 1, flex their muscles in the next two games and look ready to make it a short series, then play a low IQ ball to blow in Game 4 at home, only to then rebound on road. A passive backcourt and missed foul shots doomed them last game despite being the better team for most of the 48 mins. They seem to need multiple wake up calls but I think Kyrie gets this one and actually looks for his shot in a critical fifth game. Mavs show more guts on road for whatever reason. Experience will matter in pivotal game.

I'm looking to fade PJ Washington despite him scoring 20+ points in three consecutive games. While I believe he is a regression candidate as I do not buy that Washingto has suddenly emerged as a 20 PPG scorer, he has a green light offensively and is playing big minutes, while clearly benefiting from the defensive attention Luka and Kyrie command. Meanwhile we're getting a big RA line here as Washington averaged a combined 7.7 RA in the regular season. Washington has been the second leading rebounder in this series vs OKC and I do not believe that is sustainable.