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The Knicks are better at full strength, but now they are injury-depleted and in some trouble Coach Thibs already doesn’t like to sub and now he has nobody to turn to. Pacers roll in MSG.
New York just lost by 32 points. The Pacers are 2-8 SU off a home win of 20 points, or more. Yes, New York has been riddled with injuries, but they still opened as a two-and-a-half-point favorite despite the line moving down. The Knicks are a very resilient, grind-it-out team. Many may believe they’re gassed, which could be, but Brunson, Hart, and DiVincenzo all played less 33 minutes in that blowout. New York is 4-1 SU at home in the playoffs and 9-1 SU off a road loss of 10 points, or more.
New York has been riddled with injuries thus far. Alec Burks has seen an increase in minutes over the last two games. Burks has averaged 22 minutes and has scored 14 and 20 points in the last two contests. He’s a veteran and shown that he can gave the team some production off the bench.
Throw out Game 4. The Knicks were blown out and turned things over to their bench early. Prior to that, Donte DiVincenzo had scored at least 25 points in each of the first three games of this series. Over those three games, he hit 18 total three-pointers. He shot 40.1 percent from behind the arc during the regular season, so his proficiency in that department is nothing new. The Knicks will need him to score more with OG Anunoby (hamstring) out and their lack of overall depth. With all of the minutes and shot attempts that he can handle coming his way at home, look for DiVincenzo to hit this over.
If the New York Knicks are going to get by in game five, I believe it’s going to be based on a top tier performance from guard Donte DiVencenzo. Donte has been a bright spot all season long against the Indiana Pacers, where he averaged 24 points in the regular season and is near those numbers in the postseason. Expect twenty plus shots from DiVencenzo and for him to bounce back from a poor game four performance.
"The dead leg syndrome." We've seen it before and since the 4th Q of Game 3 in this series, the Knicks have given every indication of the same. Understandable, considering the wear-and-tear NY has absorbed (Jalen Brunson in particular) and the injury woes that have thinned Tom Thibodeau's bench. On top the absences of Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Mitchell Robinson, OG Anunoby's hamstring woes will apparently keep him out for a third consecutive game tonight, and evidence suggests it is the presence of OG (NY 26-5 with him available; 13-16 when he's not since his December 30 add from Toronto) that really makes the Knicks offense hum. Minus OG...not so much! Play Pacers-Knicks "Under"
Due to the Game 4 blowout, Josh Hart only played 24 minutes Sunday. That's critical because he's expected to play around 45 minutes in this pivotal Game 5. Hart had scored 16 or more points in four straight playoff games until the two games in Indiana. With the Pacers focusing a tremendous amount of defensive attention on Jalen Brunson, look for Hart to be a key factor offensively for the desperate Knicks.
The story throughout the postseason have been injuries. We have seen it effect nearly every team in the Eastern Conference, except the Indiana Pacers. The youth of the Pacers now have supreme confidence and have figured out how to wear this Knicks team down for four quarters. One could argue they should be up 3-1 in this series. Look for the Pacers to use the same attack mode in game five to get their first win at MSG in the series, and put big doubts on the Knicks postseason. Take the Pacers.
Looking to fade TJ McConnell after the Point Guard posted his second double double of the series, which is all the more impressive considering hes only playing 21 MPG. Despite some big performances from McConnell it is very unlikely he has earned additional playing time keeping in mind that both he and Tyrese Haliburton are not nearly as effective without the ball. In addition to McConnell lacking the ability to stretch the court which makes him one dimensional and hard to play at crunch time. I look for the Knicks to slow things down as limit possessions as the series shifts back to New York.
The Knicks have not been able to slow down the Pacers, who are averaging 118/G in this series. The opening two games in NYC were totally bonkers (251 and 238 points). Pacers are healthier team and deeper team, but I have concerns on two fronts. They don't win on road. And NYK have failed to keep pace enough to get the games in Indiana over the total. But the home crowd has brought out best in them, Brunson has a flair for the dramatic, and Pacers road defense in reg season and playoffs (124.6 rtg! in postseason, 15th of 16 teams) are abysmal. Both teams 11-4 to the over in last 15. I'm projecting a return to that high-scoring form with series back in MSG
The only think keeping this series from being nothing but overs is the Knicks running out of offensive steam and rebounding prowess in two quarters - the 4th quarter of Game 3 and the 1st quarter of Game 4. The Pacers have produced a least 111 in all 4 games and they are 111+ in 10 of 13 games in playoffs and vs Knicks in regular season. The games in NY were total shootouts and Knicks will fight for their lives in Game 5, getting a little breather in between. But with no Robinson and Anunoby, and with so many starters playing huge minutes, I worry about their ability to slow down IND. NYK struggled to stop Pacers outside shooting in regular season, too.