The Lakers are playing well, but they simply don't matchup well with this Nuggets team. Nikola Jokic has been a thorn in L.A.'s side and I expect that to continue on Saturday night. I'm laying the points and expect Denver to win by 10.

Denver is going to win this series but the Lakers are playing very well and are going to make most games tight. Denver will get one blowout in this series but not in Game 1. Take the points.

The Nuggets know what it takes to win it all and they are led by the best player in basketball, who averaged 30/g in 3 regular season wins over the Lakers (while playing less minutes given that grind). He's had about a week off and will be plenty ball-dominant here I figure showing LA what they have to contend with, again. Averaged 28 PPG and 14.5 reb (highest of career in any playoff series) in sweep of LA in WCF. Only fear is a total blowout puts him on bench in 4th quarter. I project 30+15.

Only concern is long layoff for Denver might make them rusty. Then again, you are never rustier than Opening Night, and DEN beat LA by 12 then. DEN swept the season series winning all 3 by 8+. Nuggets had 4 players avg 20+ PPG vs LA, played at a high pace vs them and scored plenty. LAL are the NBA's 23rd ranked team in Def Rating since the ASG (in a virtual tie with POR) - worst of any team still alive. That's a problem. Too many match-up issues here. Jokic will get his 30 and a triple double. After a tough series last year, Denver will be driven to dispatch LA quickly and send a message. I think that starts with double digit W.

There is a reason Denver has beaten the Lake Show eight straight times...the matchups simply don't work for LA. Mostly because Nikola Jokic and his ability to work from the high post removes some of the effectiveness Anthony Davis might have on the stop end closer to the bucket. Jokic terrorizes the Lakers, and the Nuggets are one of the few teams that can match on LeBron, as Aaron Gordon is big enough and long enough to not get overwhelmed. LA's supporting cast must come up big to avoid the same fate as last season when the Nuggets swept in the West finals. Play Nuggets

Austin Reaves averaged 5.5 assists per game during the regular season. He closed out the campaign by dishing out at least five assists in nine of his last 13 games. When the Lakers took on the Pelicans in the Play-In Tournament, Reaves registered six assists over 36 minutes. Reaves had at least five assists in three of four games against the Nuggets in the playoffs last year, and in two of three meetings with them during the regular season this year. I like his chances of finishing with at least five assists again.

The Lakers were swept but played the Nugs close in all 4 in last years playoffs. Nugs will struggle inside v AD and unless they shoot the lights out I like the under