Utah shot 37.1 percent in its shocking home loss to Atlanta a couple days ago. Look for the Jazz to bounce back strong against a Dallas team that will be without Dennis Smith Jr. Lay it as Utah covers for the 10th time in its last 12 road games.

The projection model sees a maximum of 191 points hitting the board Thursday between the Jazz and Mavericks, allowing for a value position on the Under with room to spare. The Under is hitting in 68 percent of simulations. The Jazz are on 8-0 run to the Under when their opponent scores 100 or more points the previous game. The Under is 15-6 for Dallas in Thursday games.