This is one of the lowest totals we've seen in the last month, yet I'm still leaning towards the Under. My simulations have this game closer to 194 total points. Take the Under.

Miami has beaten Dallas three straight times, and the Heat have won 16 of 18 overall. While the Mavs improved with the addition of Nerlens Noel, Hassan Whiteside cannot be contained on the glass right now. I'm on the Heat to cover their seventh straight against Western Conference foes.

I'm projecting 205 points for the Heat-Mavs matchup Monday night, with the Over cashing in 61 percent of my simulations. Go Over.