End of a seven-game trip for the Brewers so a natural letdown spot ahead of a return home for one of the series of the season vs. the Yankees. A couple of regulars are getting the day off and Christian Yelich remains out injured. Just found out the Pirates are the only team in the majors this season to not lose a game where they scored at least four runs. Starting pitcher Mitch Keller is is 8-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 16 starts at PNC Park since the beginning of last season. That home ERA since the beginning of last year is the ninth-best in all of MLB among pitchers with at least 100.0 innings.

Freddy Peralta has been electric and he is anything but a slow starter. He's been on coming out of warms every start this season and this is a lineup he has dealt with in the past. His numbers through the first 5 innings of games have been ridiculous - a 0.90 ERA allowing just 9 hits in 72 batters faced, with an opposing slashline of: .132/.181/.213. That's a 394 OPS, folks. Brewers have been one of MLBs best clutch teams with runners on base and Adames, Contreras, Turang and Wiemers have combined for 4 HRs in 33 career ABs vs Mitch Keller, allowing a .286 BA in innings 1-5 with a 4.68 ERA

The Duquesne Incline is moving at a faster speed the past ten days than the Pirates offense, which has scored all of 17 runs across a nine-game span. Seven of those have been losses, including a 3-2 setback to the Brew Crew on Wednesday when Bucs batters could only muster four hits. We don't expect things to get much better on Thursday vs. Freddy Peralta, who has been dynamite early this season and especially so his last two starts vs. the Cards and O's, allowing just 1 run and 9 hits across 12 IP, with 18 Ks and only one walk. The pressure is on Mitch Keller to keep the Bucs close until the later innings. Play Brewers on Money Line

Freddy Peralta is certainly pitching well, however 8 strikeouts is a lot to ask from the vetern right hander. Peralta has been held under this line in 20 of his last 34 starts dating back to last season. The Pirates have been middle of the pack in regards to their K rate against opposing right handed pitchers this season. I would also make the argument that Freddy has been running a bit hot on strikeouts thus far. EIther way at this number and odds, I believe it's a good spot to fade.

Freddy Peralta may be the best pitcher in baseball at this very moment. He is nothing short of dominating and the Brewers are 4-0 in his starts this season despite not giving him much run support. Mitch Keller has not been good for the Pirates since getting his new contract and the Brewers have hit the ball very well overall and are 9-2 in day games this season.