The Astros average 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starters and Collin McHugh makes his second start for Houston since returning from the disabled list. He has been a reliable arm for this staff and is undervalued in this price against the Tigers.

Tigers starter Matt Boyd has gone Over in his last four starts and Collin McHugh of Houston went Over in his first start of the season last week. Houston is 38-13 on the road and only 13 of those games stayed Under the total, with Houston scoring 7.1 runs a game and batting .302. The top play Saturday is the Over.

The projection model tells me the Astros will beat the Tigers at least 62 percent of the time in their Saturday matchup, making Houston worth the moderate chalk price. Houston has won seven straight road starts by Collin McHugh, while Detroit has dropped four straight home starts by Matthew Boyd.