Jose Berrios is one of the bright young stars in the Twins farm system, but he really struggled in his 14 MLB starts last year. Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger allowed just one hit in 5 2/3 innings against the lowly Royals. Remember Clevinger started the year in AAA, and last year he had 10 MLB starts. Take the Over when these two AAA-Caliber pitchers collide Saturday.

The projection model tells me the Indians will cover the run line Saturday against the Twins about 44 percent of the time, making this a worthwhile bet for the additional payback (+135). The Twins are 1-7 in the last eight starts by Jose Berrios, while the Indians have won four straight Saturday games and are 22-8 at home against right-handed starters.