The Pirates remain a massive longshot to grab the second NL wild-card spot, as they are 4.5 games behind with just seven to play. But they provide a strong overlay Monday against a Cubs team that has wrapped up the division and did their part to keep the rival Cardinals out of the playoffs by taking two of three from them over the weekend. Pirates rookie Chad Kuhl has allowed three or fewer earned runs in his past eight starts. He should give them a chance to win against Kyle Hendricks, who leads MLB with a 2.06 ERA.

Chicago's Kyle Hendricks has been outstanding this season overall, but most of his success has taken place at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Away from home, Hendricks is just 6-6 in 14 starts, and his team has already clinched home-field advantage in the NL. On the other side, Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl has allowed three runs or less in his last nine outings. My simulations show the Pirates winning 49 percent of the time as solid home underdogs, but that jumps to 69 percent to cover the runline.