The Braves helped cash a nice +150 for the wOBA Model with their -1.5 win last night and I'm backing them again this afternoon in the series finale. The Braves will see a familiar face with Jarred Cosart pitching for the Padres. Cosart has been good in his last three starts for San Diego, but overall is still a below average pitcher with reverse splits and a .365 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters. Mike Foltynewicz has been much better at home with a .273 wOBA which is nearly 80 points better than his road numbers. wOBA model simulations have the the Braves winning 63 percent of the time, making them a great value at -1.5 +155.

Two of the National League's worst teams wrap up a three-game series in Atlanta on Thursday with San Diego looking to avoid getting swept. My simulations give the Padres a 56 percent chance of winning the finale as small underdogs with Jarred Cosart on the hill. Cosart came to San Diego from Miami in the deal for Andrew Cashner, and he has the edge in the pitching matchup after allowing just one earned run in each of his past three starts.