Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
I was shocked when I saw this total at 9 and not 9.5 or 10 with Adam Wainwright vs. Wily Peralta at Miller Park. Wainwright's wOBA allowed increases by 100 points to .380 on the road. Peralta is even worse with a .397 wOBA allowed at home. The Cardinals are one of the best teams in baseball vs. right-handed pitching and they get a huge park shift in Milwaukee. Home plate umpire Joe West has been more neutral than anything in 2016, but he does average over seven walks per game. Go Over 9.
Two pitchers with high ERAs make this matchup a good bet to finish above the total on Tuesday. The series opener saw the Cardinals win 6-5 in another high-scoring affair on Monday, and I expect more of the same here. My simulations show more than 11 runs scored, with St. Louis giving the nod to Adam Wainwright (9-8, 4.67 ERA) and Milwaukee going with Wily Peralta (5-9, 5.87).