Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Two veteran righties faceoff in Milwaukee, with Ryan Vogelsong vs. Matt Garza. Both Vogelsong and Garza struggle with left-handed hitters with a .360+ wOBA allowed. Vogelsong has been solid in his first four starts off the DL and is being under-valued tonight on the road in a tough pitching environment. The wOBA model says the Pirates should be -135 in this spot, as it projects the park shift to benefit the Pirates hitters more than it hurts Vogelsong on the mound.
Pirates starter Ryan Vogelsong has owned the Brewers lately, going 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his last six appearances. I think Pittsburgh should be a bigger favorite Friday night at Miller Park. Brewers starter Matt Garza sports a 5.27 ERA and didn't make it out of the fourth inning in his last start against Seattle. Pittsburgh has won five straight road games following Thursday's 3-2, 10-inning win over the Brewers. Milwaukee is 3-10 in Garza's last 13 starts versus winning teams.