This game just barely met the criteria for a pick in the wOBA model, after the line moved toward Tampa. I will admit that the "sharp money" is on Tampa Bay in this game, with 74 percent of the money on the Rays despite 63 percent of the bets being placed on the Red Sox, according to SportsInsights. Oftentimes, wOBA agrees with the sharp community, but tonight we are on the other side with a play on the Red Sox at +111. The Rays have an edge in starting pitching with Chris Archer vs. Clay Buchholz, but the gap isn't nearly as large as some think. Buchholz is getting to the point where he is stretched out enough as a starter, and he gets a great park shift Tuesday in Tampa. The Rays rank No. 16 in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but rank in the bottom five in terms of strikeout percentage. The Red Sox remain the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching, making them a solid bet against a pitcher who struggles mentally at times. Take one of the best offenses in baseball as road dogs against an awful bullpen.

Suddenly the Red Sox have added stout pitching to their potent bats. Aside from using Henry Owens in a spot start versus Detroit, Boston's starting pitchers have been phenomenal lately. The starting staff -- outside of Owens -- has allowed just six runs over its last seven starts. The stretch has allowed the Red Sox to win nine of 11 and ascend into a tie for the division lead. Tuesday, Clay Buchholz will face the Rays after allowing just one run in his last outing. The Red Sox have enjoyed success against Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer, but he has found his 2015 form since the All-Star break, allowing an average of 4.6 hits over his last six starts. Look for Tampa to stop Boston's momentum.