The eighth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans open their Western Conference first-round series against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. The Pelicans, who survived the Play-In Tournament this past week, will be without leading scorer Zion Williamson with a left hamstring strain. Tip-off on Sunday is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Thunder as 8.5-point favorites, while the over/under is 215.5 points (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). 

Before you make any Pelicans vs. Thunder picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander helps power the Oklahoma City offense. In 75 games, all starts, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, 5.5 rebounds and two steals in 34 minutes of action. He is just the third player in NBA history to average at least 30-plus points and two-plus steals, while shooting 50% or better from the field, joining Stephen Curry and Michael Jordan. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 53.5% from the floor.

The model also knows without Williamson, New Orleans will look to small forward Brandon Ingram to carry a heavier load. The team's second-leading scorer is averaging 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists in 64 games, all starts. He has two double-doubles and one triple-double on the year. In a 132-112 win over Charlotte on Jan. 17, he scored 28 points, while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists.

The model has simulated Pelicans vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations!

Who wins Pelicans vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on an 88-58 roll on top-rated NBA picks!