After losing in seven games in last year's Eastern Conference Finals to the Miami Heat, the top-seeded Boston Celtics will get their chance at revenge when they face Miami in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs. Tip-off on Sunday is set for 1 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston. For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Celtics as 14-point favorites, while the over/under is 209.5 points (see up-to-date odds for every game this week on our NBA odds page). Miami will be without small forward Jimmy Butler, one of its top players, who is set to miss several weeks with a sprained MCL.

Before you make any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 88-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,600. Anyone following it has seen HUGE returns!

The model knows Boston is led by small forward Jayson Tatum. The seventh-year veteran played in 74 games this season, all starts, and averaged 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists and one steal in 35.7 minutes. Tatum is one of four NBA players to average at least 25 points, eight rebounds and four assists in each of the last three seasons. He has knocked down at least six 3-pointers in a team-high five games this season, and has accomplished that feat 33 times in his career.

The model also knows Miami point guard Tyler Herro narrowly missed a triple-double in Friday's play-in win over the Bulls. In 33 minutes of action, Herro poured in 24 points, while adding 10 rebounds and nine assists. In three regular-season games against Boston in 2023-2024, Herro averaged 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He and Butler were the leading scorers on the team, both averaging 20.8 points. Herro also averaged 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 33.5 minutes.

The model has simulated Heat vs. Celtics 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations!

Who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on an 88-58 roll on top-rated NBA picks!