Happy Valley in a "White Out" for Ohio State-Penn State is one of my favorite environments in sports. Simply put, the Nittany Lions' defense scares me going up against such a talented and well-balanced Buckeyes team. This is a spot where I almost always take Penn State with the points, but I do think Ohio State wins this one by a touchdown, particularly since Dwayne Haskins can go shot-for-shot with Trace McSorley if needed.

Penn State QB Trace McSorley has struggled versus below average defenses. Ohio State's defense is 10.5 points better than the SOS defenses the Nittany Lions have played so far this season. McSorley is struggling with a 54 percent completion percentage. Ohio State's Hoskins is a true talent and having a Heisman-type year. Ohio State is better in all three phases and will not be intimidated by the crowd.

The Buckeyes and Lions might be the two highest-scoring clubs in the country, but neither has played the caliber of opponent they will face Saturday. Both teams have plenty of talent on the defensive side, and getting key stops will likely decide this critical Big 10 matchup. Big-play offense between two Heisman candidates will play a role, but we're getting value on the Under against what appears to be a bit of an inflated total.

This is the game of the year in the Big 10 and possibly the game of the year in regards to the CFB playoff. My ratings are very high on both of these teams. I have Ohio State ranked #4 at 26.92 and Penn State #6 at 25.02 on a neutral field. My model makes home field advantage worth 2.2 points for Penn State, suggesting this game should be a pick'em. It's difficult to bet against Ohio State, but you're getting 3.5 points of value here. The sharp money agrees early as 61% of bets are on Ohio State while 52% of the money is on Penn State.

Ohio State's 39-38 win over Penn State last season was one of the best games last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one even faster paced. Both defenses are good, but the offenses are much better. Both offenses average 55 ppg. The Buckeyes average 599 ypg and Penn State averages 514 ypg. Ohio State has gone Over in nine of its last 12 Big Ten games. Over is the top play Saturday.

This is obviously a major matchup between two teams who share a division and a spot in the top 10, but at this point I find it easier to trust Ohio State than Penn State. The Nittany Lions can score, but their run defense has been average at best. Plus, Ohio State is 22-15-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2008, including a record of 5-2-1 ATS against ranked teams.

Ohio State has been favored by at least 35 points in three of its four games. The only time it wasn't was at TCU, a 12-point win (at -13). Penn State narrowly avoided a major upset in Week 1 against Appalachian State, but has since averaged 59 ppg and covered by an average of 23 points each time out. To get a Big Ten team averaging those numbers as a home underdog is rare. My computer projections see an outright Nittany Lions win. Take the points.