INDEPENDENCE BOWL (Shreveport, La.) -- Here is how much FSU wants to be in Shreveport: Four Seminoles — four! — are skipping the game to avoid the threat of injury before the NFL draft. While the ‘Noles closed the schedule on an upswing, their disappointment after a No. 3 preseason ranking must be crushing. What’s more, bowl squads generally underperform for interim coaches — in this case, Odell Haggins. FSU failed to cover this year against eight bowl foes. Southern Miss has taken down 10 of its last 14 opponents ATS. The Golden Eagles have won both previous Independence gigs outright and were competitive versus SEC teams Kentucky and Tennessee this year. I have a soft spot for mid-level conference bowlers against unmotivated Power Five teams.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL (Shreveport, La.) -- Safety Derwin James and end Josh Sweat will be out for this one as the prepare for their futures, but it won't matter. The Seminoles can go to Shreveport and simply out-athlete the Golden Eagles -- even with their second-teamers. Expect a heavy dose of the running game as new coach Willie Taggart will be looking on hoping to get a few things accomplished and -- most importantly -- keep everybody healthy. It might be close for a while, but even Florida State's offensive line is capable of winning the battle at the line of scrimmage in this one.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL (Shreveport, La.) -- On paper this line makes sense. On the field, I don’t think Florida State is ‘that’ team this year, especially against ‘this’ Southern Miss squad. The Noles are in a coaching transition and the Golden Eagles come in with a stellar ground game led by Ito Smith. This will be USM’s Super Bowl and they’ll look to notch a big win in this game.