Oregon QB Justin Herbert is as valuable to his team as any major-conference player in the country. With him, the Ducks were 4-1, had a balanced offense and one of the top dual-threats in the nation. In his five-game injury absence, they won just one game and still need a win to become bowl-eligible. Look for the return of Herbert, Oregon's better defense and home-field advantage to carry this one against an Arizona team that has likely already surpassed its peak.

Perhaps the most inflated team ATS are the Arizona Wildcats. After starting the season 2-2 with Brandon Dawkins, they’ve been a different team with Khalil Tate. Under center he has led a 5-1 surge and made Arizona an ATS juggernaut. Oregon, on the other hand, is just 2-5 in conference while coming off a blowout loss to Washington. Yet look for Arizona’s primary reliance on Tate’s legs to give Oregon and defensive-minded coach Willie Taggart an advantage.

Oregon has lost four of its last five (1-4 ATS) games in which it was the underdog. In all four of the games, the Ducks lost stayed Under just because their offense was stale. Plus they played much better teams, the upper echelon on the conference. Arizona QB Khalil Tate is becoming an instant Pac-12 legend in six starts with his running (1,293 yds, 11.6 avg, 11 TDs, eight pass TDs). Oregon QB Justin Herbert is expected to return to the starting lineup and the Ducks were 4-1 in his five starts. But I think Arizona rolls here.