After Louisville made offensively challenged Boston College look like the NFL team from Beantown, the public pounced on the Over, driving up the total 3.5 points. (Another factor was last year’s result in the ‘Ville: Cardinals, 63-20). Bettors might be overlooking the fact that FSU is almost as limited on offense. The Seminoles, with talented but still green freshman James Blackman at QB, ranks 109th in yards and 120th in scoring per game. Improvement is happening but in small increments. The Cardinals’ defense, while no demon, is better than it showed last Saturday. The ‘Noles have stayed Under all season and they usually do not meet the public’s totals expectations in the ACC, as indicated by the 18-6 Under mark in the last two-dozen outings.

I know Louisville has had its issues defensively and along the offensive line, but the Cardinals still find ways to put points up because they have the most dynamic player in college football. Florida State, while improved, tends to struggle against QBs that have the ability to create.

My projections see a game decided by three points or fewer in more than two-thirds of simulations between the Seminoles and Cardinals. Short-handed Florida State continues to get too much respect in the betting market despite failing to cover similar numbers against respectable but inferior ACC opponents such as Wake Forest and Duke. The Lamar Jackson-led Cardinals should take this one to the wire Saturday.