USC is 4-0 but just 1-3 ATS. However, the cover came against the beat team the Trojans faced: Stanford. My point is it looks like the Trojans are playing down to the opponent. In this day and age, everyone knows the points spread and I"m sure it has caught the eye of the Trojans. Washington State is 4-0 and a great story. Mike Leach took over a program that won just 9 games in four years and he has taken the Cougars to back to back bowl games and 17 wins in the last two years. Leach is a guru of the Air Raid spread offense but I'm banking on the USC defense, which is by far the best the Cougars have seen. Lay the points.

We should see a high-scoring affair here between USC and Washington State. The difference is that USC quarterback Sam Darnold, despite all his flaws, is one that you can trust under pressure and against pressure. Also, defensively the Trojans are much more capable of getting key stops at crucial parts of the game.

The Trojans have predictably seen some bloated lines this season, making for value underdog plays on the likes of Texas and California. But this isn't one of them. If anything, the home-standing Cougars are the ones getting too much respect, as I believe they should be about a touchdown underdog. Washington State has had just one tough game, while USC has been tested every week. The Cougars are overmatched in every capacity here, and only a USC letdown will get in the way of a decisive win.

This is the closest spread in this matchup over the past 10 meetings, but in my mind, it should be even smaller. The Cougars are covering 63 percent of my simulations and have an excellent chance to win outright. Back Washington State before this line falls.