I'm also going to take Notre Dame on the moneyline at +125. As I mentioned in the previous pick, Notre Dame is much better than the competition North Carolina State has faced this season. The Irish will give up a few scores, but the offense will be too much for the Wolfpack to handle.

Notre Dame is extremely undervalued by the public after losing to Duke and allowing 33+ points in three straight games. The Irish are still the more talented team and their offense will have enough power to cover as three point dogs. North Carolina State looked good against William & Mary, Wake Forest and Old Dominion but Notre Dame is a much better team. My simulations have the Irish winning by four points, making them a great value at +3.

Notre Dame is in a rare bargain position because of its early struggles, but the support for N.C. State in this one isn’t justified. Under coach Dave Doeren, the Wolfpack have followed a consistent trajectory -- they beat up on the Old Dominions and Wake Forests of the world, but falter when facing a higher level of competition. This is also a team that lost to East Carolina, I can’t see N.C. State stopping a Notre Dame offense that piled up 654 yards against Syracuse last week. The Irish are the better team and a steal at this price.

My projections have the Fighting Irish winning by more than a touchdown, and they're covering in 66 percent of my simulations. This is a blatant case of a good team getting devalued too much by the public.