The Badgers have won seven straight road games, and the jury is still out on how good the Spartans are because oddsmakers may be overestimating their win over Notre Dame. This will be a true test for Michigan State to see how the team plays against two tough opponents in back-to-back weeks. My simulations have Wisconsin winning 55 percent of the time and covering at a 66 percent rate.

Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst made a bold move by making a QB change the week of playing at one of the Big 10's most hostile environments. Sure, senior QB Bart Houston hasn't been an elite performer so far, but don't wins count for anything? The Badgers are 3-0! The really big deal here is that the replacement is redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook, making his first start on the road at Michigan State, which just won at South Bend. This line should be at least -7, so there's value with the home team.