There is the number I was looking for. I had this game circled early this week at +5.5 but the value wasn't strong enough for a play until +7. I will admit this is at the lower end of the criteria for a play in my college football simulations, but I'm going to roll with Arkansas on the road +7 vs. Texas A&M. Arkansas already beat TCU and have covered in five of the last seven games with A&M. Arkansas could win this game outright, but I'll take the free touchdown. 28-24 Texas A&M wins and Arkansas covers.

In what should be the game of the day, I like getting nearly a touchdown with an Arkansas team that's already won at TCU. The Razorbacks have covered five of the past seven meetings with Texas A&M, not to mention six of their last seven SEC games. This feels like a toss-up game -- last year's matchup went to OT -- so I'll grab the points with a squad that's won three straight against ranked teams away from home.