Florida State was a popular pick in futures market to win the national and ACC titles, but now many observers question whether the Seminoles can get past Louisville on Saturday. I think they can, and am going to fade the widespread Louisville sentiment in this one. Cardinals QB Lamar Jackson is great, but he has beat up on two meager opponents, and those explosive runs will be hard to come by. He will have to make more plays with his still-questionable arm. I think the Seminoles have better overall talent, and they will find a way to win.

We're about to find out how good Lamar Jackson and Louisville really is when they host Florida State. The loss of All-American defensive back Derwin James is a huge hit for the 'Noles and ultimately enough to take this from a no bet to a value bet on the home team. Jackson and the Louisville offense should dictate the pace of this game and his unique skill set will prove to be too much for the Florida State defense. I was impressed with Deondre Francois in his debut, but I still expect him to make mistakes on the road early in the season.

The Cardinals have the nation's top-rated offense and they're facing a Seminoles defense that will be without preseason All-American defensive back Derwin James, who tore knee cartilage during last week's blowout of Charleston Southern. My simulations show the home underdogs with a 61 percent chance of winning outright and a 63 percent chance of covering.

The Seminoles come into this game feeling good about their redshirt freshman QB Deondre Francois, who’s shown the ability to be unfazed by pressure -- pressure from the defense and pressure of the moment. Louisville is as explosive as advertised, and comes into this game with the ability to dictate tempo and pace. Despite their ability to apparently score at will, the Cardinals have a propensity to get a bit careless with the football. I like the matchup on the outside, with the Cardinals receivers and Seminoles defensive backs. I think the X-factor will be explosive QB Lamar Jackson. I like the Cardinals.