South Carolina is in rebuilding mode, as former Florida coach Will Muschamp takes over after Steve Spurrier resigned midway through a 3-9 campaign. The Commodores return seven starters from a sturdy defense that evolved into one of the nation’s best under coach Derek Mason, allowing 21 points per game (No. 22 nationally). Mason and Muschamp are each noted as defensive mavens, and I think we’ll see those units dominate this contest. Respect for Vanderbilt is shown in the spread, as it is rarely favored against an SEC opponent. I’m not ready to back the Commodores as a chalk, but think we’ll see a score in the 20-17 range that clips the Under on this meager total.

Defense looks to be the difference in this season-opening SEC showdown, and my simulations show South Carolina with a 59% chance to win straight-up and even better odds to cover the spread as a road underdog. Vanderbilt's offense looks to be too underwhelming to score enough points to cover more than a field goal, putting the Gamecocks in prime position to beat the number with a shot at the upset.