Purdue’s defense is much improved from last season. However, the Huskies are a team people do not want to get in front of right now. Connecticut ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, but the way they’re playing right now they might as well be number one. The Boilermakers can be a very one-dimensional team at times, with feeding the ball to Zach Edey. And now he goes up against Donovan Clingan, who’s been playing just as good, if not better, especially defensively. Connecticut’s defense has shown they can slow down any offense and repeat as champs.

The big men in this matchup are going to garner most of the hype and media attention leading up to tipoff. But I believe it will be UConn's undeniable advantage in the backcourt that will decide this game. I expect a big time performance from Tristen Newton, who will lead the Huskies to their second consecutive national title. I'm laying the points here.

The pre-finals 'hypothetical' line was at sportsbooks prior to Saturday night's games and it was set at 5.5. As soon as Uconn beat Alabama that line was pounced upon and it's now at 6.5 in many markets. Purdue has had a nice run and they're a good team, but they're not the caliber of Uconn. Uconn has size to deal with Edey on the interior and I think Purdue's guards get swallowed up by Uconn's perimter defense. The boil cools to a simmer on Monday night and the Huskies triumph by 7 or more.

This is nothing new for UCONN. You could tell from their demeanor when they took care of Alabama that they hadn't accomplished anything yet. They are the best team in college hoops and they are a covering machine and I project them to win this game by 9-14 points. Purdue has a big man bigger than theirs, but not as athletic and versatile. Huskies have too much depth and I love the fact that they finally were given a game Sat night and still covered for us. We have been riding these two teams projecting them to get to this point and I was going to dive on UCONN if it opened under 8. I suspect by Monday night it's hovering around there.

Eleven and counting. That's how many NCAA Tournament games UConn has won and covered in a row. Each win has come by at least 13 points. Purdue presents the biggest challenge yet, with 7-4 Zach Edey surrounded by a slew of lethal 3-point shooters. But the Huskies are a machine right now. And with the nation's best defensive big man, Donovan Clingan, UConn won't have to double- and triple-team Edey like other teams do, leading to open 3-point shots. The Huskies have the coaching edge and should improve to 6-0 all-time in national championship games.

While the conversation will focus around Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan, I think this game will ultimately be decided by the perimeter players and that's where the Huskies have a noticeable edge. If we were to draft all the players in this title game Edey might be the first pick, but the next five players would be Huskies. The performance of players like Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban in the national semifinals only drove home how well-rounded and complete this UConn team is, and no matter how you want to play or what kind of challenge you want to present for the Huskies they always have an answer. I'm expecting a competitive game, but one where the Huskies pull away late to cover.

I've been saying that U-Conn is the best team in college hoops, but after 12 wins and 11 covers, I think they've met their match. Who have they played with three losses and a cupcake schedule? Purdue has played everyone. Let's go through their schedule, Arizona, Tennessee twice, Gonzaga twice, Alabama, Marquette, and everyone else on the non-conference schedule. All wins. Their four losses were in conference on the road. Battle-tested. Tournament ready, and a big monkey on their back. Purdue to win, take the points

This number started at 5.5 and this is the last 6 right now as it’s climbing towards 6.5 and 7. Purdue does not match up well with UConn; Huskies are simply far more efficient and athletic.

Best of this number is gone but I’ll go under. Like first half under at 68.5 as well. UConn is under 9/10 tourney games.

UConn has been my team throughout the tourney. I will be playing them on the first half line but also like the ML as long as it’s at this price. This price has an implied win percentage of 71.4 and I make UConn higher than that number. I will also play them on the spread line for less

Besides UConn continuing to win by double digits, there's another trend staring us right in the face on the "totals" side; "unders" in six straight and nine of ten for the Huskies. The UConn defense is much more than 7-2 Donovan Clingan closing down the paint, as the real strength might actually come further away from the bucket, where the length of the Huskies' wings closes down perimeter shooters. With a collection of 6-4 to 6-8 types challenging everything up to and beyond the arc, the Huskies defense forms a blockade much further from the hoop than Clingan's territory. If the game is slower-paced as we imagine, the "under" remains there looking us straight in the eye. Play Purdue-UConn "Under" (NCAA at Glendale)

This is a really tough game to handicap. A lot of people will side with UConn and I don't blame them. However, once the line hit +7, it was high enough for me to take a shot on Purdue. I make UConn -5 in this matchup. Purdue has faced the second-toughest schedule in the country per KenPom and went 8-1-1 (89%) against the spread versus ranked opponents this season. In almost any other year Purdue would be a favorite in this game given its resume. UConn is a machine, although +7 feels a bit high here. I'll take the points and hope the Boilermakers can keep it close. Good luck, thanks for following this season.

BOILER UP!

Alabama wants a fast-paced game. However, the Huskies have one of the best, most consistent defenses in the country. Connecticut shut down the number one offense in terms of efficiency, the Fighting Illini, holding them to 52 points. Connecticut has held seven of their last eight opponents to 60 points, or less. The Crimson Tide’s defense has improved, but Connecticut is simply a different animal on both sides of the court. The Huskies are 4-0 to the under this tournament.

The best team in the country excels at covering gets extreme rest to prepare. Grab this now. UCONN has proved that covering spreads in this range is baked into their cake and ALA's defensive deficiencies will show up here. UCONN can dictate pace and their big man looks unstoppable and they are used to the final four atmosphere. Admit I've been a Bama skeptic but this is more just a full-throated endorsement of UCONN's desire to kick everyone's ass by 15+ points. I grabbed it at 11 over the weekend. I wouldn't wait too long to get in. Too balanced and too heady and too deep. ALA is not a diverse offense - everything is a 3 or at the rim. UCONN has answers.