The public is all over NC State. As mentioned before, the Boilermakers are on a mission this year to prove they can be like Virginia and winning a title last losing to a 16-seed the previous season. Zach Edey will get his down low, but the Wolfpack have three above-average defenders in Burns Jr., Middlebrooks, and Diarra to throw at him. Even though they were down by seven at half against Duke, the Wolfpack showed that they have the ability to fight back on the defensive side then capitalize on offense. Feeding off the energy of one another, their guards are playing just as well as Purdue’s on both sides of the court to be able to cover the number.

Recent wins over top-tier Duke (by 12), Marquette (by 9), Texas Tech (by 13), and North Carolina (by 8) suggest this is more than luck propelling NCS. Purdue is a real challenge, but matchups might not work badly for the Wolfpack if bruising 6-9, 275-lb. DJ Burns can stay on the floor, as he likely is able to push Zach Edey out a bit further as opposed to the way he sat on the low blocks vs. Tennessee in the Elite 8, when he scored 40. That became the Boilermakers' default options as 3s weren't falling as they normally do vs. the Vols, but if triples wane again in Glendale, Purdue will have its hands very full. Play NC State (NCAA at Glendale, Az)

Initially I was leaning Wolfpack but upon further review, their lack of depth is going to be a problem. Not from a fatigue standpoint, but via foul trouble. NC State played just seven players in its Elite Eight win. Purdue is hitting 39.7 percent from beyond the arc over its last three games, right around its season average of 40.6 percent (2nd nationally). Zach Edey's presence will continue to open up 3-point shots. NC State has held its last three opponents to 24.4 percent from deep, but some of that is luck that could regress.

There's not much value betting the Final Four favorites but once I got an 8.5 with Purdue, I pulled the trigger. NC State has been on an amazing run, although they just don't match up well with Zach Edey in the paint. DJ Burns is a beast but he's more of an offensive player who can be a liability on defense. Mohamed Diarra is likely to get into early foul trouble guarding Edey and that will put the Wolfpack at a big disadvantage. NC State ranked last in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage and opponent's free throw attempts per game. That's a recipe for disaster vs. Purdue. Boilermakers pull away and win by double-digits.

NC State is the type of team that gives Purdue some problems and they've won nine straight since their last loss against Pittsburgh. They're on fire. They beat Duke twice, Carolina, Texas Tech, and Virginia. The secret to their success has been not turning the ball over. I think Purdue should be about five at most, anything else is a gift. Teams in red seem to give trouble for Purdue for whatever reason. I think Purdue wins but it's going to be a struggle. I like NC State plus the points.

What NC State has done during their nine game winning streak is limit teams offensively. They did it to the Tar Heels, Duke twice, and Marquette. At times in this tournament we have seen Zach Edey give less than 100 percent effort, and guard play has been sporadic for stretches. This is where I expect the coaching edge to prevail on Matt Painter’s side. Timely timeouts and substitutions to get Purdue where they need to be. Purdue will match NC State on the defensive end of the floor, and without a doubt will have two to three offensive surges that the Wolfpack can’t contain. Lay it with the Boilermakers.