Penn State has won four straight, the last being a 79-56 blowout against Ohio State. All four wins were driven by an improved defense. Purdue has hit the skids with a three-game losing streak and it's played below its high rating lately by not covering the spread in the last six games. Five of the Boilermakers' previous six contests stayed Under the total. Defense will be the main theme here. Opponents are shooting 38 percent on Purdue's court. Under is the top play.

Penn State's surprising 23-point win over Ohio State probably deflated this line quite a bit, but Purdue's recent three-game skid that includes a bad loss at Wisconsin probably affected it also. Still, this is a formidable Boilermakers squad that my projections show covering 65 percent of the time, winning by an average score of 75-64. Lay the points with the hosts.