In nearly 70 percent of my simulations, Louisville gets the home cover. The Cardinals are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12. Since a bad home loss to Syracuse two weeks ago, Louisville has crushed Pittsburgh by 34 and Georgia Tech by 23. The Tar Heels are 4-4 straight-up on the road and will struggle in Louisville. Lay the points.

A big game for both teams with the top four teams from the ACC standings getting two byes for the conference tournament. North Carolina is currently fourth and Louisville is fifth by just a half-game. The Cardinal have overcome a lot since September when Rick Pittino was fired as the head coach. David Padgett took over and team has gotten better as the year has gone on with the Cards playing their best basketball in conference. Louisville is 10-3 ATS in the ACC and in the month of January they were 8-1 ATS. Louisville has a well-balanced team led by Deng Adel who is probable versus the Tar Heels. UNC has played true to form with a 20-7 record and 13-10-3 ATS record. I had them rated the 15th best team at the beginning of the year and that is exactly where they are ranked today. UNC has won four in a row after a three-game losing streak but the Heels are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven ACC road games losing straight up to Clemson, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Florida State. Plus they only beat Notre Dame by one on the road when ND had two starters out.