Purdue, normally a giddy-up team, has played its last four conference games to point tallies of 133, 136, 139 and 128. Next up is the poster child of deliberate offense, Wisconsin. Stats site kenpom.com places the Badgers ahead of just three other Division I teams in possessions per 40 minutes. It's farfetched to imagine as many or more points scored in this game than in Purdue's other Big Ten matchups. The Over has not cashed in the prior six Wisconsin road games, while Purdue has gone Under in four straight. The Under has hit in all but one of the previous five head-to-head matchups. The total has shrunk by two points; it would have to decline more to dissuade me here.

Purdue has had one of the better home-court edges over the past few years, going 43-20-2 ATS in their last 65 games at Mackey Arena. Oddsmakers know this and keep increasing the Boilermakers' home rating, but not high enough since they keep covering. They're 7-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents 89-58, on average. Wisconsin comes in having lost its last two -- both on the road at Nebraska and Rutgers. The still underrated Boilermakers are the play.

Wisconsin is in rebuilding mode after losing its last two Final Four holdovers, Bronson Koening and Nigel Hayes, to graduation. The Badgers are likely a longshot for any sort of postseason consideration. They are 9-9 and lack a signature win, despite a handful of close losses against upper-tier competition. Third-ranked Purdue has won 13 straight and is coming off a pair of solid performances in road wins over Michigan and Minnesota. The Boilermakers could be in slight look-ahead mode Tuesday, with a trip to Iowa and rematch with Michigan looming. Wisconsin's deliberate tempo will make it difficult to create the separation needed to cover this number.