The Cyclones prefer to play up-tempo, with a heavy reliance on three-point shooting. Against Baylor last month, it was a case of checkmate. The long, lanky Bears tend to keep foes in the 60s, as they did in a two-point win over Iowa State last month at home. Today’s total is 12 points higher than the 128 scored that day. Iowa State has exploded in many games -- 130 versus the Citadel -- but a dogged defense like Baylor’s can reel them in.

My projection model shows the Cyclones getting at least a six point win Saturday as they host Baylor in Big 12 action. These teams now have identical 10-5 conference records as Iowa State has won four straight, including impressive road wins against Kansas State and Texas Tech. Baylor squeezed out a win against undermanned Oklahoma in its last outing but is still reeling, with losses in two of its last three. The Cyclones have the better current form and they are the value side.