My projection model forecasts a tight game between Richmond and Dayton on Thursday in a battle for the top spot in the A-10 standings. The Spiders are 5-0 in conference play, though most have been tight games against mediocre competition. Still, this double-figure spread is a major disrespect to a team that hasn’t lost in nearly a month. The Flyers are one game back but have the better club. Still, they rarely achieve this level of separation against quality opponents and the value is with the underdog Thursday.