Villanova is the better team in this matchup, but this is a spot where I think they might struggle due to their style of play. Nova runs a much smaller rotation, with the starters playing just over 75 percent of the total minutes. My real concern with Nova is how heavily they rely on the 3-point shot (36.2 percent of points come from the three) and what they might look like if they have an off night in a tough road environment. This is a great spot for Butler to steal a win on their home floor. I have Butler covering +1.5 in 54 percent of simulations.

Butler has won all eight of its home games while Villanova has won all 14 of its games played anywhere. Both these teams like to get after it on defense and it's helped them go a combined 16-9 ATS. While I think the game will be close, I made a wager on Villanova just because I see value with the number. I have Villanova 7.5 points better than Butler on a neutral court and I'm only giving Butler a generous 3 points for home court because Villanova is the better team. Lay the points.