Sportsline

Brandon Woodruff is under this line in 6/8 starts this season. …

Sonny Gray is 9-1 this season...

Chris Sale has been dominant at home! ...

Robbie Ray is under this line in 5/8 road starts this season. …

Will Sonny Gray continue his great form in Anaheim on Saturday night?

Damian Pinas has won all nine of his fights by stoppage...

ver 2.5 goals has paid off in all four of Norway’s games so far. ...

Mexico has lost just twice at Estadio Azteca. ...

Fade Conor McGregor after a 5-year layoff?...

From April 24th to late May, Nathaniel Lowe hit all nine of his home runs on the season. He has not homered since May 29th. I’m expecting this streak to end either in today’s game or tomorrow against the Baltimore Orioles. Two way play on JJ Bleday and Lowe, as the Reds have been strong off a shutout loss in terms of runs. In six shutout losses this year they are averaging five runs the next game.

From April 24th to late May, Nathaniel Lowe hit all nine of his home runs on the season. He has not homered since May 29th. I’m expecting this streak to end either in today’s game or tomorrow against the Baltimore Orioles. Two way play on JJ Bleday and Lowe, as the Reds have been strong off a shutout loss in terms of runs. In six shutout losses this year they are averaging five runs the next game.

Caesar’s. Sean Burke has cleared this strikeout line in seven straight outings. In the eight before, he was just 2/8, so I dug into what’s propelled the surge (+4.6% swinging strike rate) without a meaningful change in velocity, spin or pitch mix. What it seems to be is that Burke lowered his arm angle on his four-seamer, creating a tunneling effect with his breaking balls which are thrown at similar launch points. The result has his fastball, slider and knuckle curve’s whiff rates all ticked up. And I’m happy to test this theory against the Guardians who have the fourth highest called plus swinging strike rate over the last 30 days, and the fifth highest K% against righties over the same span (25%).

I will bump this up to +2.25 to avoid the push on a two-goal Paraguay loss, which is kinda what I am leaning. France has looked truly awesome, but we saw Argentina have issues in the knockout rounds on Friday -- there is no benefit now for goal differential, so I think that matters a bit; just survive and advance like the NCAA Tournament -- and have had only a couple games overall this week see a team win by at least three goals, although France has done so in all three matches thus far. I think Les Bleus are now my favorite non-USA team. Very entertaining but I expect a defensive shell from Paraguay so hopefully we get 1-0 or the like.

France has been spectacular offensively in this tournament, so backing Over 2.5 goals is a no-brainer for me. France has scored at least three goals in all four of their contests in this competition, and I don't see why Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Co. can't do so again against a Paraguay side that gave up four goals to the USA.

France should be far too strong for Paraguay. They’ve won all four of their World Cup games by convincing margins – 3-1 against Senegal, 3-0 against Iraq, 4-1 against Norway, and then 3-0 against Sweden in the Round of 32. That means they’ve scored at least three goals in every game so far, and they’ve only conceded 0.5 goals per game on average. Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, and Ousmane Dembélé are in magnificent form right now, so France should win this by at least two goals.

Texas even with all their injuries has mounted a nice stretch as they have won seven out of their last eight games. Evan Carter was a big spark in Thursday’s win over Detroit, as he had a hit in his two pinch hit at bats including a home run. Jack Flaherty has pitched five innings or less in four straight starts, and struggled against the Rangers on May 1st. In that start he went 3 2/3 innings and gave up four runs. Take Carter to clear his combination line once again against the Tigers.

FanDuel (-125). Zebby Matthews has cleared this line in 6/9 starts this season. He’s actually made some tweaks with his arm angle and arsenal this season that have helped him with his command but lowered his whiff rate. The result has allowed him to stay in games longer, which in turn has kept his overall strikeouts up. He’s also been afforded a very long leash from the struggling Twins. Facing a Yankees lineup that’s struck out at a 28% rate over the last two weeks - Matthews pump-the-zone style should bode well against the Bombers, who have the second highest CSW%.

This pains me a little because I root for Canada in almost every international competition if not playing the USA. And if this match were in Canada, then no bueno. But it's in Houston. I don't think there is really much argument that Morocco is better (24 spots higher in world rankings), it's just a matter of whether we get stung with a regulation draw. But I really can't justify Canada +0.5, either. Note that I am considering this a moneyline play through extra time (to avoid said sting) and not 90 minutes.

Canada has had a great run in this World Cup, but I don't see them winning this match against an experienced Moroccan side. Morocco outshot the Netherlands, 11-6, in the Round of 32, and bolsters a backline that has given up three or fewer shots in target in each of their past three fixtures. Morocco defeated Canada at the 2022 World Cup, and with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line this time around, I expect Morocco to secure the win again in Houston.

Once again, I’m left impressed with this Morocco team. They play with a tenacity and physicality that can be suffocating, but what’s really exciting is how dynamic the attack looks. That’s something they’ve missed over the last few years. Canada have made a great run, but the turnovers worry me, especially the ones that come from dribble attempts and sloppy touches. They need to move the ball quicker and avoid getting stuck in possession. If they think Morocco are going to give them space to operate, they’re mistaken. Morocco are the better team on paper, and I think that wins out.

Morocco are on a long unbeaten streak, and these players know how to grind out results in big games. They did well to get past the Netherlands in the previous round, so they should be full of confidence right now. Canada aren’t playing on home soil anymore, so this could be the end of the road for them. They deserve a great deal of credit for getting this far, but Morocco have enough quality to beat them in Houston this weekend. It’s unlikely to be a high-scoring game, as the Moroccans are solid in defense, and the Atlas Lions should edge it.

This Washington Nationals lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, with just a 21% rate over the last month against righties, but they feature a bunch of lefties. Braxton Ashcraft has been far more successful in terms of strikeouts when facing left-handed batters and we continue to get 5.5 as his strikeout line so I’ll take the over. His curveball plays to a near 45% whiff rate against lefties and many of these Nationals hitters have struggled with the curveball. 7,8,9 Ks ladder for 1u.

FanDuel. Will break my “no overnight” rule on this one, but it’s for a pre-noon game as is. And it’s a great spot for Braxton Ashcraft, who is over this line in 11/17 starts, including 25 over his last three. The Nationals are very left-handed heavy, with six likely in the lineup. Ashcraft sees his strikeout rate jump to 32% against southpaws, paired with a 29% whiff rate. Washington has been striking out a bunch as is, with a 25% rate over the last two weeks. Look for Ashcraft to capitalize.

Seattle as a team had just two hits in yesterday’s win over the Angels. They’ll host a Toronto team that had Luis Castillo’s number in three starts a season ago. He gave up five runs in one start, matched a season worst ten hits allowed in another, and took the loss in game four of the ALCS with the Mariners up two games to one. Back Toronto to continue to have Castillo’s number.