Josh's Past Picks
Although the price is a bit chalky, it has actually dropped from a high of -170 or steeper at some outlets. At this price, it's extremely playable as a straight bet or in a single-game parlay. Although TD production is subject to variance, this is still a meager milestone for the game's best QB to clip on a stage where we've seen him excel. Mahomes has hit this mark in two of his previous three Super Bowl appearances.
The dual-threat bellcow is a generational talent. and he's been well worth the multiple draft picks the 49ers traded to get him. He's found the end zone twice in each of the first two postseason games, and there's solid value for him to do it again as he performs on the sport's biggest stage for the first time.
The 49ers' defense has been leaky in the playoffs, while the Chiefs' stagnant offense came alive just in time for the postseason. With the game on turf and numerous game-breakers on each side, this has the feel of a game script similar to when these clubs met in Super Bowl 54. It might be a bit sloe early, but look for second-half fireworks that send this Over the total.
Reynolds has clipped this number 10 times this season, and his 15.2 yards per catch average illustrates he is a big-play threat. With top target Amon-Ra St. Brown destined to garner extra attention from the 49ers secondary, Reynolds should have plenty of opportunities to surpass this number.
The 49ers looked a bit wobbly last week and were fortunate to escape against an upstart Green Bay club that self-destructed down the stretch. The Lions have come too far just to fold in the NFC title game, and, it's worth noting that QB Jared Goff already has won a road conference title game when he was with the Rams. While there's little doubt San Francisco has the better team, it would be a surprise if the Lions go down without a fight.
Although both clubs feature an array of elite playmakers, there's value on the Under against this high total. San Francisco ranks in the top 5 of nearly every measurable defensive category, while Detroit's No. 2-ranked rushing defense should slow down the 49ers a little. Look for this one to sneak Under the total.
The veteran TE finished third on the Ravens in receiving despite missing the last seven games of the regular season because of injury. He clipped this number in all nine games in which he was healthy, and Baltimore's recent history suggests capable backup Isaiah Likely becomes an afterthought when Andrews is on the field. If Andrews is anywhere close to full health, he should easily clip this total.
Mahomes has only failed to throw for 2 or more TDs four times in 16 career playoff appearances, and one of those goose eggs came in his postseason debut. With a Super Bowl berth on the line, a minimum of 2 TD passes feels like a near certainty for the game's top passer.
Veteran bruiser Gus Edwards has been both a TD magnet and a reliable grinder between the tackles this season. However, the versatile Hill has shown a little more burst and was the featured back last week against the Texans. Hill provides more potential for a pop play in the running game and he should see enough touches to clip this total.
There are those who believe, out of principle, you should take the points on the Patrick Mahomes side whenever they are offered and it's a tough argument to dispute. The Ravens are an understandable favorite as they appear to have lapped the field against upper-tier opponents, with blowout wins over the 49ers, Lions and Dolphins. But Mahoes is 3-1 against the Ravens, with the lone defeat coming by one point. Look for this game to be decided by a short key number either way.
Jones has hit triple digits in rushing yards in four straight contests. While the dual-threat RB will still be crucial to Green Bay's game plan, his rushing effectiveness will be limited by San Francisco's third-ranked rushing defense. Take this total Under. .
The Ravens averaged more than 37 points per game over their past four meaningful contests (Week 18 excluded) while showing an explosive offense that appears to be peaking. Houston can't be expected to duplicate last week's 45 points, but will do enough to help send this game Over the total.
Tampa Bay is the popular underdog play of wild-card weekend as bettors appear to be rushing to bet the Bucs as if they are reading the box score. The bottom line is if the Eagles have checked out as some reports suggest, this game should be no different than their recent disappointments. If they haven't, this is a clear value spot on a team that once looked headed toward the top seed in the NFC and crushed the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3. If the Eagles can rediscover their competitive grit and take advantage of this favorable matchup, they have a great chance to salvage their season next week at Detroit with a berth in the NFC title game at stake.
Although inclement weather is often an overestimated factor when analyzing totals, there are other reasons to like the Under on the total in this game, which has seen wild swings. Buffalo has become a more run-oriented team in recent weeks, and Pittsburgh will likely have to revert to its smash-mouth ways if it is to cover or have a chance to pull the upset.
Much has been made about the Rams' 7-1 late-season surge. But the only winning team they beat in that span (aside from the meaningless Week 18 game against the 49ers) came against the Browns in Joe Flacco's first start. This is a huge game for the Lions franchise and QB Jared Goff against his former team. The Lions also get a boost from the presence of TE Sam LaPorta, who had been a longshot to play because of a knee injury.