Initial reaction to early Conference title lines
Both games launched with three-point lines. One did not take long to tick up, while the other held steady for the first few hours after it was posted.
In stark contrast to the NFL's Wild Card Weekend, when road teams swept, form held in the divisional round.
All four home squads won straight-up, leaving nothing but Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in the league semifinals.
The against-the-spread outcomes were not unanimous. Though Arizona's victory margin was six points and Denver's was seven, neither side covered, leaving the favorites at 2-2 ATS.
The BookMaker SportsBook set early lines of a field goal for both conference finales next Sunday. One favorite is a road team -- New England, playing at Denver. The other is at home -- Carolina, playing host to Arizona.
Before the ink was dry, the Patriots had moved briefly to -3.5, but then settled back in at a field goal. Scott Cooley, BookMaker's odds consultant, would not be shocked if the line escalated further in the AFC Championship.
The opposite could happen with the NFC game. Cooley noted that Arizona drew support from the "sharps" throughout the regular season and notes that the pattern could continue. The Cardinals entered the weekend as the wagering favorite to capture the Super Bowl.
Patriots (-3, 44) at Broncos, Sun., 3:05 p.m. ET: The obvious angle here is Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning, two quarterbacks for the ages, for perhaps the last time.
But the more legitimate storyline is New England's creative offense against the Broncos' peerless defense.
The Broncos' ATS record of 8-9 pales next to their straight-up mark of 13-4. And while Manning is a cut above Brock Osweiler, who filled in during an injury hiatus, Denver is only 3-7 ATS in games started by the future Hall of Famer.
Similarly, New England has not fared as well ATS (8-7-2 ATS) as straight-up (13-4). The Pats are only 3-5 ATS on the road.
A freezing Sunday night on Thanksgiving Day weekend brought the teams together in Denver for one of the year's most enthralling games.
The Patriots had generated buzz about a possible unbeaten regular season. Then C.J. Anderson took a handoff from Osweiler in overtime and burst 48 yards for a touchdown and a 30-24 triumph.
Brady was throwing that day to a second-tier group of receivers. Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola sat out with injuries, while Rob Gronkowski departed during the game. All three are expected to suit up for the rematch.
Thanks to its perfect record and Manning's absence, New England spotted the Broncos 8.5 points that evening. A late-season slump by the Pats and Peyton's return, however shaky, explain the slimmer spread this time.
The total is unusually low for a Patriots game, but Denver's stalwart defense justifies it. Since their win over New England, the Broncos have allowed more than 20 points just once.
Cardinals at Panthers (-3, 47), Sun., 6:40 p.m. ET: Arizona might need directions to the airport. The Cardinals will be traveling to their first road games in five weeks, following three home dates and a bye.
Another NFC destination -- think Minnesota or Green Bay -- might have posed problems with the weather for the sun-baked Cardinals. The long-term forecast for Charlotte calls for temperatures well above freezing.
The Panthers are 7-2 ATS this season at home. That includes, in hindsight, a surprising day when they were two-point underdogs to Green Bay.
They enjoy the feel of natural grass underfoot, whether at their own Bank of America Stadium or elsewhere. Six consecutive games on the surface have been covered.
Arizona is no slouch away from home as evidenced by a 5-3 ATS record, with four wins in the last five.
The teams have gone in opposite directions lately on the totals. The Cardinals are on a 6-1 Under run overall, while the Cam Newtons are 5-1 Over in their last half-dozen home gigs.
The teams' one-two ranking for points scored justifies the high total. Carolina led the league on the strength of 500 points, with Arizona close behind at 489.
Adding to the Over's appeal is a possible broken foot suffered Sunday by Panthers defensive end Jared Allen. Nearing the end of his career, Allen reigns as the league's active sacks leader.