Jaguars vs. Texans Week 1 NFL odds, spread: Trevor Lawrence will not win regular-season debut according to recent history for No. 1 overall quarterbacks
QBs picked No. 1 overall generally don't fare well in Week 1 in the NFL from a winning perspective.
Despite entering Sunday's game on a franchise-record 15-game losing streak, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point favorites at the Houston Texans in the NFL regular-season debut of former Clemson star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Jaguars and considered the top QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Know this, though: Luck lost his first start in the league and that has been a trend for signal-callers taken first overall.
Believe it or not, Jim Plunkett (1971 Patriots), John Elway (1983 Broncos) and David Carr (2002 Texans) are the only No. 1 overall picks to start at QB and win in Week 1 of their rookie season in the Super Bowl era.
Since 2009 when Matthew Stafford was the No. 1 overall pick, quarterbacks chosen there are 0-6-1 straight up and 1-6 against the spread. That tie and cover was courtesy of a miracle comeback by Kyler Murray's Arizona Cardinals against the Detroit Lions in 2019. Going back further, No. 1 overall QBs are 1-10-1 SU and 2-10 ATS since Troy Aikman was the first pick by the Cowboys in 1989.
Lawrence was the first No. 1 overall pick in Jaguars history and was 34-2 SU at a starter at Clemson. Since the 1970 merger, just seven rookie quarterbacks overall have been favored in Week 1, and only three won the game SU. The last was the Eagles' Carson Wentz (now with Colts) in 2016 at -3.5 vs. Cleveland. Wentz threw for 278 yards and two scores in a 29-10 victory over a bad Browns team.
Jacksonville was 7-9 ATS last year, and since 1985 teams with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft improved their ATS cover percentage by an average of 13.6 that following season. The Bengals went from 6-9-1 ATS (42.3 percent) in 2019 to 9-6-1 ATS (60 percent) last year with the addition of QB Joe Burrow – although he was limited to 10 games. Burrow lost his Week 1 debut 16-13 at home to the Chargers and Tyrod Taylor.
Defensively, the Jaguars have allowed at least 24 points in 15 straight regular-season games, tied for the longest such streak in league history (1950-52 Packers). This is the first time since 2019 that the Jaguars are at least 3-point road favorites, and that tells you what oddsmakers think of the stripped-down Texans this year without Deshaun Watson, who is 6-0 in his career as a starter against Jacksonville. Watson is expected to be inactive every week due to his off-field issues.
Houston swept each of the past three seasons under Watson, but it will be the veteran journeyman Taylor starting Sunday. Taylor is 6-0 ATS in his past six starts (26-19-3 ATS overall), including that win at Cincinnati to open last year with the Chargers before giving way to Justin Herbert because of a medical accident that injured Taylor.
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