Cubs vs. Reds Thursday probable pitchers, odds: Hunter Greene starting to show potential NL Rookie of the Year form

Thursdays are often pretty slow around MLB and there are usually a handful of matinee games because it's a getaway day. Yet while there are 11 games scheduled today, the only matinee is the Chicago Cubs concluding their series in Cincinnati at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Reds are short underdogs at Caesars Sportsbook despite starting NL Rookie of the Year candidate Hunter Greene on the mound. (See tickets at StubHub)

Early this regular season Greene, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, was a +450 second-favorite for NL Rookie of the Year behind Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki (+200). Now Suzuki is +120 and Greene way down at +3500, but there might be value there.

Arguably no one in baseball throws pure gas more consistently than Greene (on April 16 at the Dodgers, he had an incredible 39 pitches at 100 mph or higher), but that frankly didn't matter much for a while. Following his fifth big-league start May 5 when Greene was obliterated for eight runs and nine hits (five homers) in just 2.2 innings of a loss in Milwaukee, he was 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA. Reds manager David Bell was criticized for allowing the prized prospect to be hammered so hard before being pulled and there was talk that the Reds might send Greene to the bullpen.

However, he has been a different pitcher since, allowing four earned runs over 18.2 innings in his next three with 21 strikeouts – although the Reds lost all three games, as Greene was given little run support. In his eight starts overall, the Reds have scored 24 runs, including two runs or fewer four times. Remember, Greene threw 7.1 no-hit innings at Pittsburgh on May 15 yet still lost, even though the Pirates registered to fail a hit even after he was pulled. This will be his first look at the Cubs. Greene is one of 12 rookies, including nine pitchers, who have appeared in at least one game for Cincinnati so far.

Chicago, which had a three-game winning streak snapped Wednesday, counters with lefty Justin Steele (1-4, 3.82 ERA). He has been quite good in three starts this month with a 1.80 ERA in 15.0 innings but has an 0-1 record to show for it. Steele has struck out 19 batters in his past two, becoming the 11th left-hander in Cubs history to strike out nine or more batters in consecutive games.

Steele is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in four appearances (two starts) in 12.0 career innings against Cincinnati. It's not clear whether Greene will have first-string catcher Willson Contreras to throw to. Contreras hasn't started a game since Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Update: Contreras is starting. 

Which 2022 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Join SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Jonathan Taylor's huge season, and find out.