The Phillies have pen issues. The Phillies paid this guy a boatload of money for years to come to be an ace and that requires you - gasp - pitching into the 7th inning sometimes. I know, crazy right? This to me is one of those spots. His last two starts have totaled 15 1/3 and his arm hasn't fallen off despite registering 46 outs in that span. He's plenty stretched out and I like this payout

Nola has been awesome the last two times out and seems to have found his form from a rough spring. Phillies healthier and hitting the ball well lately. The league is batting .324 off Joe Musgrove in innings 1-5, and he sports a FIP of 5.84 in those innings. I like the momentum the Phils are building, while the Padres tend to be their own worst enemy and have some holes in the lineup with Manny Machado on the IL.

I'm still not sold on Joe Musgrove regaining his form but Aaron Nola's last 2 starters totaled 15 1/3 IP, with 16Ks, 2 BB and 3 ER. Phillies starting to hit the ball as it warms up and with Bryce Harper back in the lineup. Four guys in the likely starting lineup have homered off Musgrove and he's been vulnerable to the long ball, allowing 5 already this season. Padres bullpen got shelled by bad Rockies team Thursday, and are already somewhat compromised heading into the weekend.