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Annual Better-Than Team
Last week in this space, we gave you 20 players in this year's draft who are not getting ranked as highly as we think they should.
As promised, this week we give you the flip side, 20 players ranked too high by scouts and personnel people. That doesn't mean many or most of them won't go on to have successful careers. It's just that their current draft stock is too high for now.
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| Ben Roethlisberger is ranked one or two on most lists of QB prospects.(Getty Images) |
But he's on this list. Why? Philip Rivers. The feeling here is that Rivers will be a better NFL player and thus should be ranked ahead of Roethlisberger. As it is, Rivers isn't high on many team's boards, despite moving up a bunch in the past month or two.
So before firing off 1,000 e-mails to complain about a player or players on this list, just remember that seeing their name here doesn't mean they won't become good players. It just means they are ranked too high entering next week's draft.
So here's this year's group of overrated players:
Roethlisberger, QB, Miami of Ohio: He will be a quality starter, but he isn't in the same class with Manning and should be behind Rivers. His physical tools sometimes are the reason he's ranked higher than Rivers, who looks thin and gangly.
Mike Williams, WR, USC: Will he play in the NFL? Yes. Will he be a starter? Yes. Is he a superstar waiting to happen? No way. He doesn't run well enough. He's a first-round pick, just not a top 10 pick.
Randy Starks, DT, Maryland: A lot of scouts get irate when the name Kris Jenkins is mentioned when talking about Starks. Starks is a good player, but not first-round pick material and certainly not in Jenkins' class.
Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn: A year ago, he was projected as a possible top 15 pick. Now he won't be the top linebacker selected. Dansby isn't as fast as thought and he struggled in coverage at Auburn.
Dunta Robinson, CB, South Carolina: -- He ran well at the combine, which has his stock soaring. He's a good player, but just because he ran well doesn't mean his stock should move him past Chris Gamble of Ohio State. The team that makes that mistake will regret it.
Greg Jones, RB, Florida State: Big, plodding backs can sometimes struggle in the NFL when the speed of the game increases. Jones should be ranked lower than a second-round pick, but his build and size have teams drooling.
Justin Smiley, G, Alabama: Smiley is a good player who will develop into a starter, but he shouldn't be ranked ahead of Boston College's Chris Snee or Vernon Carey of Miami on the guard list. Some teams have Smiley first.
Maurice Clarett, RB, Ohio State: If his name was Joe Runner, he'd be a sure second-day pick. As it is, he might go in the third round. Risky stuff.
Junior Siavi, DT, Oregon: He is a run stuffer who showed off his strength at the combine. But those types of players don't deserve first-day draft status. He will play, and probably play well, but he's ranked too high on a lot of boards.
Madieu Williams S, Maryland: Based on physical ability, he should be at least a second-round pick. But his athletic ability doesn't translate to making as many plays as he should. He's a developmental pick.
Casey Clausen, QB, Tennessee: Some at his workout said it was embarrassing. He actually threw some passes that wobbled like punts. He's a free agent at best, but his pedigree might get him drafted.
Derrick Strait, CB, Oklahoma: His name was at the top of a lot of corner lists to start the season, but teams have cooled on him some. His lack of speed has hurt, but he also didn't play as well in 2003 as scouts would have liked.
Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma: He will be a top 15 pick, and probably higher, but he shouldn't go before Miami's Vince Wilfork, who is a better player. Some scouts think Harris disappeared during games. We agree.
Ricardo Colclough, Tusculum: Small-college corner who has been getting loads of hype, even some first-round talk. That won't happen, but he should be gone by the end of the second round, which is about right. Teams love to pump up small-college finds, which is what happened here.
Donnell Washington, DT, Clemson: A big man who can take up a lot of space, he is being considered as a second-round pick by some. But he didn't play to that level at Clemson. That's too high for a player of his abilities.
Jason Babin, DE, Western Michigan: The shortage of defensive ends will drive up his stock, perhaps into the first round, but is he that good? He plays hard and he did dominate the competition. But a first step in the Mid-American Conference is a lot different than a first step in the NFL.
Antwan Odom, DE, Alabama: He's a speed rusher who will also go before he should because that's what he does. Inconsistent at Alabama, yet he will be drafted on potential.
Marquise Hill, DE, LSU: He came out early and there are some scouts who think he blew a chance to go in the top 15 next year by doing so. He had six sacks last year and was the third-best lineman on the LSU defense. His body will intrigue a lot of teams, though.
Isaac Sopoga, DT, Hawaii: Here's another run stuffer who is too one-dimensional for his ranking. Should be a third-round pick but could go higher. Will be in some team's rotation, but anything more is a hope.
Brandon Everage, S, Oklahoma: He was once considered the premier safety in this draft, and he will be taken by the fifth round, but even that might be too high. He has some off-field issues that cloud his status, but he also struggled last year. If he played at another school, he'd be a free agent.
Around the League
- With Friday at 11:59 being the deadline to sign restricted free agents, it looks as if that market wasn't as attractive as first thought. Pittsburgh defensive tackle Rodney Bailey is the only restricted player to change teams, leaving for New England when the Steelers did not match the offer sheet he signed. That means several high-caliber restricted free agents will be staying put, including players such as Rams quarterback Marc Bulger, Dolphins defensive end Adewale Ogunleye, Ravens guard Bennie Anderson, Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson, Colts tackle Ryan Diem, Broncos guard Ben Hamilton, Jets tackle Kareem McKenzie and Cowboys defensive tackle Willie Blade will all be back with their old teams unless an 11th-hour offer sheet is signed before the deadline. Ogunleye has already threatened being a training-camp holdout rather than sign the one-year tender for $1.8 million. "I expect Wale to be with our team this year," said Dolphins coach Dave Wannstedt. "Because I do know, and it's like anything else, David Bowens and Jay Williams, Otis Grigsby, we have a few guys there. I'm excited about finding out what David Bowens does. He's a guy that last year I thought would really do something and you remember last year he tears his knee up jumping off a table or something. I feel really good about our defensive end position, I really do." None of those guys is close to being in Ogunleye's league, but it's still a subtle message to him: Life will go one without you.
- The Broncos are making a push to get Dennis Northcutt from the Browns for a draft pick, which would greatly enhance their speed outside in their passing game. Northcutt could also return punts for the Broncos. But one thing about a potential trade: Didn't Northcutt's agent say he wouldn't play for anybody but Baltimore? Cleveland won't trade Northcutt to the Ravens, even thought they are said to offering more than Denver. They don't want him in the same division. And that's understandable. But if they don't trade him to Denver or somewhere else, what is Northcutt going to do, sit out? Not quite. Agents can talk that talk all they want, but the reality is the player isn't going to leave money on the table in the prime of his career. There are only so many payday years in a body. If the Broncos get Northcutt and use the 17th overall pick on a runner, such as Steve Jackson or Kevin Jones, the offense is going to be tough to stop now that Jake Plummer is in his second season running the show. But aren't offenses run by coaching geniuses supposed to be good?
- The Giants have been linked for much of the pre-draft talk to Iowa tackle Robert Gallery. Giants coach Tom Coughlin used the second pick of the draft on Tony Boselli in 1995, which has made many of the comparisons to his getting a left tackle with the fourth pick if the Giants stay in the spot. Word is, though, that Coughlin does not think Gallery is in the same class of Boselli. But who is? At his prime, Boselli might have been the best left tackle to play the game. He had the feet of an NBA forward, the power to handle players in the run game and a tenacity he took to the field every Sunday. Gallery has some of those same traits, but he isn't quite in that class -- at least that's what Coughlin is said to be thinking.
- Speaking of Coughlin, condolences to him and his family on the loss of his mother this week.
- By now, everybody knows the Cowboys are peddling Larry Allen around the league. Three teams have already made offers of a third-round pick, but the Cowboys are hoping for more. The Lions and Raiders are both interested. Allen's best days are behind him, but he is still a top-notch player when he wants to be. You have to give coach Bill Parcells credit for making this move. Parcells wants players in his program who will do it his way. Allen didn't. He often pushed Parcells to the limit last year, and finally the coach had enough. Allen has been a great Cowboys player, a guy on his way to the Hall of Fame, but cutting ties with him now is the right move. With fellow guard Andre Gurode coming off a disappointing season last year, look for Dallas to possibly address guard early in next week's draft. If not, they certainly will in the second or third round.
- It has been known for some time that the Jaguars weren't happy with safety Donovin Darius and would consider trading him if he became a problem. Now they are officially peddling him around the league in hopes of landing a draft pick. Darius has told people in Jacksonville that he knows he won't be back next year. He is a hard-hitting safety who improved as a cover player last year, but he still lacks the ability to play the pass above average. This Jaguars regime, like the previous one, is tired of his act. Darius signed the franchise tender of $4.1 million, then did not show up for the team's offseason conditioning. It's not that he will get out of shape -- he's one of the best-conditioned athletes in football -- but it's about developing rapport with his teammates. Darius trained with an ultimate fighter last year and it helped him as a player. Two other Jaguars players, defensive end Hugh Douglas and defensive tackle John Henderson, are doing the same this season. Douglas, who was badly out of shape last year, has vowed to be a changed man in 2004.
- Ron Wolf walked away from $850,000 as a consultant to the Browns for one reason and one reason only: He wasn't about to be coach Butch Davis' lackey. Wolf signed on this year as a consultant in large part because president Carmen Policy asked him to do so. But when Policy decided to retire, effective May 1, Wolf had a change of heart. The public position is that Wolf left because Policy did. The reality is he left because Davis now had the juice inside the building, and it was a relationship that Wolf wanted no part of. After a disappointing 5-11 season, Davis got a two-year contract extension and total power over football decisions. What happens if he goes to the playoffs? They going to give him ownership of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame? Davis took some veiled shots at Wolf during the league meetings last month, which certainly couldn't have helped the situation any.
- Now that Peyton Manning has his $98 million contract in Indianapolis, the Jets have to start wondering how that will affect their talks with their quarterback, Chad Pennington. He is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2004 season. He will make $4.574 million this season. The Jets certainly would like to lock up Pennington for the long haul, but the Manning contract could make that difficult, even if Pennington isn't in that class yet. "Oh, yeah, he'll demand," said Jets coach Herman Edwards. "But he'll be smart enough, too, to know, 'Hey, I don't need to take this much. I'll take this much (instead).' I don't worry about that. Our guy is pretty smart guy. He's smart enough to figure it out. What you hope for is that the quarterback, whoever that player may be, understands the team concept. These guys are smart. They know, 'If I take this amount of money, who am I going to lose of the veteran guys? If I leave an extra two or three million on the table, that will allow me to keep player X.' And after a while it's, how much money do you need?" Here's how much: as much as you can get. To think a player takes into account the rest of the team during his negotiations is naïve. And it shouldn't be that way. It's up to the team to make that work, not the player.
- Draft risers: Boston College guard Chris Snee, Arkansas tackle Shawn Andrews, Oregon defensive tackle Igor Olshansky, Pitt corner Shawntae Spencer and Virginia quarterback Matt Schaub. Draft fallers: USC receiver Mike Williams, Ohio State corner Chris Gamble, Randy Starks and USC corner Will Poole.
