Power Rankings: Dark horses on hold, Colts, Pats chalk picks

Updated Sept. 2

That team is in there somewhere, buried among the dregs of the NFL. There might even be two of them.

I call them "The Shockers," those teams that come from nowhere to make the playoffs in the NFL when nobody sees it coming.

As I prepared the first regular-season batch of our Power Rankings -- opening up the season of rip jobs -- I kept scanning the bottom half of the league to try and come up with a team that will shock us all, be better than we thought, and make the usual mockery of this first set of rankings.

It happens to me -- and you -- every season. Why not again this season?

That's the NFL way. It's also a way to ensure the nasty e-mails and comments under these rankings keep coming my way. Nothing I do infuriates you guys like the rankings.

So who is that team? Maybe it's the Buffalo Bills or Houston Texans? Most of you would probably go with the New York Jets, who are 20th in these rankings (Jets fans probably want to throw me off the Empire State Building for that ranking), but I think the Jets are where they will finish -- below the playoff teams.

Whatever that surprise team is, expect to see it come playoff time. It's also a team that will probably do nothing more than make the postseason party, not with the power teams so far ahead of the rest.

In the AFC, the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers are the teams to beat. In the NFC, I'll go with the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and New York Giants.

At least one of those six will make the Super Bowl, maybe two.

They're followed by a mix of teams that have a chance to join them in that elite class, teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks.

So which team is the best? For now, I'm going with the Colts on one condition: Peyton Manning plays like his old self. If he does, the Colts will be better than the 2006 team that won the Super Bowl.

That isn't to say the Patriots or Chargers won't be there with them. There isn't much dividing those three.

Health will be key. That means Manning, Tom Brady (Patriots) and Shawne Merriman (Chargers). All have missed time in the preseason with injuries. All are vital to their team's success, the first two even more so than Merriman.

First one healthy to December wins.

As I finished writing that sentence, I decided to scan the rankings again, one last time in search of the surprise team. The bottom eight teams have no shot to make the playoffs, eliminating them. So that means the surprise team is between 16 and 24, meaning somewhere in that group is a playoff team.

Which is it? I just don't know for sure but I know the team is in there.

Damn it, who is it? Any ideas?

Power Rankings
Current		Team	Previous
	1	Titans · Trends	1
	Now that they've shown they can pass it to win games, where are the weak spots? There aren't any. They can essentially clinch home-field advantage by beating the Jets this week.
	2	Giants · Trends	2
	Here's the plan: They tell you they're going to run it, and then they do it. Get ready, Cardinals. The Mack truck offense is coming.
	3	Panthers · Trends	3
	It hasn't been pretty the past two weeks, but is it ever with this team? At 8-2, do we really know if they're any good? We might after they go to Atlanta this week.
	4	Buccaneers · Trends	4
	Don't you get the impression that they're getting better each week? They could be the sleeper team in the NFC. Jeff Garcia is playing well.
	5	Jets · Trends	7
	They proved by beating the Patriots last week that they are a legitimate contender. They do have to work on that pass defense. They get their crack at Tennessee this week.
	6	Cardinals · Trends	8
	They can prove all of the doubters wrong by beating the Giants this week. If they do, they just might end up as the NFC's second seed.
	7	Cowboys · Trends	9
	Getting Tony Romo back is huge, but so is having Terence Newman healthy at corner. They are healthy now, which readies them for a six-game run to the playoffs.
	8	Colts · Trends	11
	For the first time this season the offense looks to be getting into a groove. The defense remains a worry, especially when Bob Sanders isn't playing.
	9	Steelers · Trends	12
	The best thing to come out of the San Diego game was seeing Ben Roethlisberger throwing it better. That will be the key to the playoff run.
	10	Patriots · Trends	6
	They have a huge one this week with the Dolphins. The winner might be tied for first place if the Jets lose. The loser could be in playoff trouble.
	11	Dolphins · Trends	18
	Yes, they are playing a big game in November. Can you believe it? It has been a nice start for first-year coach Tony Sparano.
	12	Broncos · Trends	20
	They've fought through a bunch of injuries and now look to be the team to beat in the AFC West. As they get healthy, they should be even better, especially when they get Champ Bailey back.
	13	Falcons · Trends	10
	They have a chance to bounce back in a big way from that loss to the Broncos by beating the Panthers this week. If they don't, they will be traveling the wild-card route at best.
	14	Redskins · Trends	5
	They've lost consecutive games at home and the passing game has struggled in both. Jason Campbell needs to get it going again the way he did early this season -- or they'll be watching come playoff time.
	15	Packers · Trends	19
	After two tough road games they got right against the Bears last week. They are tied for the division lead now and the good thing for the rest of the season is that Ryan Grant got it going Sunday.
	16	Ravens · Trends	13
	There's no shame in losing to the Giants on the road. The big shocker is that the defense got pushed around. That doesn't happen often.
	17	Eagles · Trends	14
	After that terrible tie at Cincinnati, they must now go on the road again to play the Ravens. Wonder if Donovan McNabb knows that this game will be 60 minutes long?
	18	Bears · Trends	17
	The defense is a sieve. Hard to believe this is a team known for tough, physical defense. It just isn't happening and the passing game can't keep up when the Bears fall behind.
	19	Saints · Trends	22
	The next four weeks are brutal. It starts with a Monday home game against Green Bay, followed by Tampa Bay on the road, home against Atlanta and at Chicago. We'll know if they're in it after that.
	20	Vikings · Trends	15
	I'm tired of saying it: Their passing game isn't good enough. Gus Frerotte can't overcome his shortcomings.
	21	Browns · Trends	24
	They still have playoff hopes, thanks to Phil Dawson's 56-yard field goal. Brady Quinn is going to be a heck of a player. The defense still has issues.
	22	Bills · Trends	16
	What has gone wrong with Trent Edwards? Did that hit in Arizona change his game? It sure looks like it.
	23	Chargers · Trends	23
	L.T. doesn't do much anymore and the defense can't stop anybody. Is this really the same Chargers team that went to the AFC title game last season?
	24	Jaguars · Trends	21
	Their playoff chances are basically over. It will be interesting to see if they play hard down the stretch now that they're 4-6.
	25	Texans · Trends	25
	It's going to be another playoff-less season. That has to change next season or Gary Kubiak could be out in 2010.
	26	49ers · Trends	30
	It's too bad they can't play the Rams every week. They might be playoff bound if they could. They're playing harder under Mike Singletary, that's for sure.
	27	Bengals · Trends	28
	They have a victory and a tie in the past two games. That's progress. The good thing for next season is that the young defensive players are playing better.
	28	Rams · Trends	26
	If they didn't have to play the first half, they'd be OK. They've been blown out the past three weeks in the first halves of games.
	29	Seahawks · Trends	27
	Hard to believe this team is way down here. But even the return of Matt Hasselbeck can't turn things around. Why? The defense has been terrible.
	30	Raiders · Trends	29
	They battled in Miami, but they just don't do enough on offense. The change to having Tom Cable call the plays hasn't exactly worked. Maybe it's the players.
	31	Chiefs · Trends	31
	Tyler Thigpen is showing that maybe, just maybe, he might be this team's quarterback of the future. The next six games will tell us that.
	32	Lions · Trends	32
	I know Daunte Culpepper almost beat the Panthers, but is it really wise to be playing him? Don't they need to find out about Drew Stanton?