Peek at the Week: Steelers to determine Pats' real condition

Game of the week

Pittsburgh at New England, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone

The line: Patriots by 12½

The injuries: Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu (knee) missed Thursday's practice and might miss Sunday's game. If that happens, Tyrone Carter takes his place. Polamalu practiced Wednesday after missing the past two games.

Expect Hines Ward to be busy going across the middle Sunday in Foxborough. (AP)

New England is in good shape, with defensive end Ty Warren (thigh), safety Rashad Baker (ankle) and guard Stephen Neal (shoulder) limited in Thursday's practice.

The story: For 11 weeks the Great Debate was whether the New England Patriots were "the greatest team of all time." Then the Pats turned for the home stretch, and something odd happened: They struggled to overcome Philadelphia. No problem, everyone has a hiccup. One week later, they barely squeaked by Baltimore, and now you can't help wondering: Is New England hitting the wall? Either the Patriots have decided to drive 55 along with the rest of the league or age in the defense is beginning to show.

This game should offer some clues.

The Steelers aren't the toughest opponent out there, but they should be a whole lot tougher than Philadelphia and Baltimore. For one, they have a winning record. For another, they're not starting a backup quarterback. Like the Eagles and Ravens, they can pressure the pocket with an aggressive defense. Like the Eagles and Ravens, they can run the ball. Unlike the Eagles and Ravens, they're on their way to the playoffs.

We know the Patriots are good. Very good. We just don't know if this late-season lull is temporary or the beginning of a trend. If the past two games demonstrated anything, it was that the Patriots defense is vulnerable to the run and big plays.

Remember when Indianapolis pressed these guys? Joseph Addai ran all over them. Willis McGahee did, too. And now you have Willie Parker, the NFL's second-leading rusher and most overworked ball carrier. Parker has 285 rushes, 40 more than runner-up Edgerrin James, and can move a pile like McGahee. So he couldn't hold on to the football against Cincinnati. There's no rain in the forecast for Foxborough on Sunday.

When the Steelers lined up against New England in the 2004 AFC Championship Game, they wasted no time throwing, and it hurt them. Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted on the third play, a turnover that signaled the beginning of the end. I don't see that happening here, mostly because you stay with what works -- and Parker should against these guys.

But remember what we learned when the Eagles were here two weeks earlier: If the Patriots secondary is vulnerable, it's to the pass over the middle. It protects the outside of the numbers but leaves the middle of the field exposed. Expect Pittsburgh to look that way for short and intermediate passes, with Hines Ward and Heath Miller the targets.

The Patriots, of course, remain unconcerned, and for good reason -- for all this talk about their vulnerability, they haven't lost. They were pushed the past two weeks, but they won. And that's all that matters.

Tom Brady has been effective, though his past two outings have been among his worst, and his cadre of wide receivers is tough to shut down -- though Baltimore did a decent job Monday. The Steelers secondary isn't extraordinary, but the club can -- and will -- pressure the quarterback with a furious pass rush, much as Philadelphia did two weeks ago. Getting there is another matter, with Brady sacked only 16 times this season.

The keys for Pittsburgh are sustained drives and bucking a disturbing trend of its own: ineffective road play. The Steelers aren't themselves on the road, where they are 2-3, including a loss to the Jets.

The key for New England is keeping Dick LeBeau's defense off Brady. New England doesn't run much anyway, but there is no way Laurence Maroney or Kevin Faulk solves the league's second-ranked rush defense. So it will take its chances against the NFL's top-ranked pass defense, and what's so wrong about that? This is Brady we're talking about.

I know people want to make a big deal out of Anthony Smith's guarantee of victory, but that won't decide this game. New England's resilience or Pittsburgh's defense will. Remember, it was the Steelers who put the kibosh on that 21-game winning streak by New England three years ago. That was in Pittsburgh, but the point is the Steelers have been in this position before.

Three games I'd like to see

San Diego at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

Three-quarters of the way through the season and we really don't know what to make of these two. The Chargers knocked off one opponent with a winning record, and the same goes for Tennessee. Both believe they're playoff worthy, but the guess is that only one makes it -- with San Diego the favorite as AFC West champion.

The Chargers have been protecting quarterback Philip Rivers. (AP)

That doesn't mean the Titans are out of the picture. Not by a long shot. They draw Kansas City and the Jets after this, then finish the season at Indianapolis -- and by that time, there's no telling if the Colts are able to rest their starters.

If there is urgency, then, it belongs to Tennessee, basically because San Diego holds a two-game cushion in the AFC West. The Titans snapped a three-game skid last week and credit some of that to defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. He played, and trust me, that's big. When he's in there, opponents average 72 yards rushing and 16 points a game; when he's not, those figures swell to 158.7 yards rushing and 32.3 points a game. And the Titans are 7-2 with Haynesworth, 0-3 without him.

With LaDainian Tomlinson next, Haynesworth's involvement is crucial to the Titans' success. L.T. is beginning to look like himself again, scoring touchdowns in four of his past five games. One was in Kansas City, and that's important because the Bolts are not exactly what you'd call road warriors. They are 2-4 away from home, with their only victories against Denver and the Chiefs.

Playing a second road game in two weeks could prove difficult, but not if the club can spring Tomlinson. When he scores at least twice, the Chargers are 26-2, and here's the good news, San Diego fans: In two career games against the Titans, Tomlinson has averaged 109 yards rushing per start and has three touchdowns.

Something to consider: The Chargers surrendered eight sacks in their first three games. They have allowed only eight in their past nine starts and three in their past three.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

Relax Giants fans. Your team is going to make it to January. One reason is Big Blue is better on the road than it is at home, with the Giants winning their past five road games -- including last week's 21-16 defeat of Chicago. But this is the first time New York has played road games on consecutive weekends, which means it is basically a warmup for the upcoming playoffs.

Brandon Jacobs might return for the Giants. (AP)

The Eagles might be a playoff contender had they just won a close game. Of their seven losses, four have been by four or fewer points. One was a Nov. 25 defeat at New England when the Eagles got greedy late and tried for a touchdown; another was last week's loss to Seattle, where they couldn't cover the final 14 yards for a score. Anyway, this club is on its way to a hard landing, with the only good news that Donovan McNabb returns to the lineup.

Of course, that depends on which Eagles fans you address.

McNabb takes over for A.J. Feeley after Feeley was marvelous against the Patriots and underwhelming against Seattle. Feeley commits too many mistakes, throwing seven interceptions in two starts, and that's a recurring theme for the Eagles. They have 22 turnovers and are minus-9 in takeaway/giveaway differential, and you don't need me to tell you that neither is good.

The Giants could have Brandon Jacobs back, and that's a plus. So is the play of Eli Manning on the road. For some reason, the embattled quarterback is more comfortable away from the Meadowlands, with his only 100-plus QB ratings coming on the road. Manning and the Giants hammered Philadelphia earlier, but that was when tackle Winston Justice was pressed into duty as a revolving door. That won't happen here.

Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine what the Eagles are playing for. I know they have a chance to sneak in as a wild card, but there's no consistency to this team. Don't blame Brian Westbrook, because he's having an All-Pro season. But you have to wonder which McNabb shows up and how motivated the troops are now that Dallas has all but locked up the division.

Something to consider: Andy Reid is 21-9 in November and December against the NFC East, including an 11-3 mark in December.

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 p.m. ET | Preview | Endzone

Not so long ago this looked like it might decide the NFC West. Then the Seahawks went on a tear and the Cardinals gave away a game to San Francisco. Now it's Arizona's final opportunity to get off life support in the division. A loss here means it is wild-card time ... but only if the Cards can dial up three more wins and light candles at the nearest cathedral.

Edgerrin James enjoys playing the 'Hawks. (AP)

Arizona is vastly improved and peaking at the right time, with three wins in its past four starts. But the momentum belongs to Seattle. The Seahawks have not only won their past four; they took their past two -- both road games -- with valiant defensive stands in the final minute.

Shaun Alexander is back, and while he's not the MVP of two years ago, he didn't look all that bad against Philadelphia. He had one touchdown. He had a 16-yard run. And he finished with a team-high 65 yards. I mention that because since the Cards joined the NFC West in 2002, they have beaten Seattle four times -- with Alexander failing to rush for 100 yards in each of those games and producing only one touchdown. In Seattle's seven victories, he has hit 100 four times with 15 TDs. Draw your own conclusions.

Nevertheless, Alexander is not the story on offense. The Seahawks' passing attack is. Matt Hasselbeck has been hot lately, and there's no reason to believe that won't continue. He has four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 111.7 passer rating in his past two starts against the Cards. The Seahawks are 34-11 when Hasselbeck's rating is 90 or above, and, yes, he benefits by not having Adrian Wilson in the Cards lineup.

The key for Arizona will be using Edgerrin James as effectively as it has lately. James closed out the Browns a week ago by figuring in all but two plays on the team's game-clinching series. He has a history of success against the Seahawks, averaging 113.4 yards rushing in his past five starts against them and scoring five times. He also shredded them for a career-best 219 yards in 2000.

Something to consider: With two TDs last week, Arizona's Kurt Warner has four consecutive multi-touchdown games -- his most since his MVP season of 2001.

Crummy game of the week

St. Louis at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

It has been a season of misery for the Rams. (AP)

I don't know if Marc Bulger starts, and I don't know if the Bengals show up. Both teams have been busts, but at least the Rams have an alibi. Injuries, injuries, injuries.

What's the Bengals' excuse? They should have been piling up the points weeks ago. Instead, they're piling up losses, and one more defeat clinches Marvin Lewis' first losing season in five years there.

The Rams are 27th in points allowed; the Bengals are 29th. Maybe someone can provide enough pyrotechnics to keep you from turning to the Food Network.

Something to consider: Believe it or not, the Bengals defense has allowed only 277.3 yards per game over its past four. Not since games 8-11 of 2001 has the defense had a four-game stretch with lower net yardage.

Upset of the week

Houston (+2½) over Tampa Bay | Preview

Backup Sage Rosenfels leads the Texans. (AP)

Yeah, I know Jeff Garcia is likely to return for the Bucs. Still, I don't trust a team playing its second straight road game, and that's what this is for Tampa Bay.

The Bucs had an enormously emotional and important victory last weekend in New Orleans that all but guarantees them a division championship but could affect their performance Sunday.

Matt Schaub is missing for Houston, but I still like the Texans here -- mostly because I think Tampa Bay is wrung out.

Something to consider: The Texans haven't scored a third-quarter touchdown in 10 games.

Five guys I'd like to be

Jason Taylor gives Buffalo problems. (Getty Images)

Jason Taylor, DE, Miami: Because he has more sacks (17) against Buffalo than any opponent.

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas: Because he has six consecutive games with a 100-plus passer rating and gets to extend that streak against slumping Detroit.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis: Because he is averaging 126.3 yards receiving per game in his past four starts on the road.

Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia: Because in his past seven regular-season games against the Giants, he has 1,013 combined yards and seven touchdowns.

Mike Shanahan, coach, Denver: Because he draws the right opponent at the right time with Kansas City. Under Shanahan, the Broncos are 9-3 against the Chiefs at home and have won their past six against them in Denver.

Stat of the week

Poll Who will win Sunday?   24%  Patriots in a blowout     6%  Steelers in a blowout     28%  Patriots in a close one     42%  Steelers in a close one     Total Votes: 17703

Great matchup in Cleveland, and I'm not talking about the Jets and Browns. I'm talking about their kick returners. Cleveland's Joshua Cribbs leads the league with an average of 31.2 yards a return and two touchdowns; the Jets' Leon Washington is second with a 30.5 average and a league-leading three TDs.

He said it

"Basically, what it boils down to is you've got to watch what you say. Your mouth can't write checks that your ass can't cash." -- Dallas cornerback Terence Newman on Sirius radio responding to Jon Kitna's comments from a year ago.

Where we will be

Pete will be in Foxborough to see what a down jacket feels like.

I'll be in Nashville to save a seat for Pete on the Vince Young bandwagon.

Mike Freeman will be in Philadelphia to file Jevon Kearse's name with missing persons.

Gregg Doyel will be in Detroit to measure Jon Kitna for a suit of armor.