Brock Osweiler looked great in the win over Indianapolis and I like this spot for him to continue to play well against the Redskins. With the Redskins injuries and lack of motivation, my simulations make this a pick'em game. Take the points!

Denver’s two outright wins in a row fail to overly impress, the victims having been the Colts and the Jets. The Redskins represent a step up as QB Kirk Cousins continues to impress. His collective passer rating the past five games is a fraction below 100. The Broncos were leaning toward Paxton Lynch (ankle) at QB for audition purposes, only to be left with Brock Osweiler as the lone option. The veteran is coming off a rare gem but will work without the team’s Nos. 2 and 3 WRs, Emmanuel Sanders (ankle) and Cody Latimer (thigh). That should allow the ’Skins, who are softies against the rush, to gear up against RB C.J. Anderson. Denver has covered once out of nine away games dating to late last season. Washington is whipping sub-.500 opponents, with 11 covers in 16 recent tries.

We're getting good value in fading the Broncos as they're coming off an easy Thursday win. They're still terrible, easily the worst offense in the league by weighted DVOA. They're also 1-6 on the road this year, with that Indy game their only victory. In 1 p.m. games, they've lost by 10 to the Bills, by 28 to the Eagles and by 26 to the Dolphins. It looks like Brock Osweiler is going to start, but he isn't as good as his relief outing last week suggests. Washington just barely covered a bigger line against a better team, so this line doesn't make much sense to me.

The Redskins were overrated by oddsmakers to start the season, but the correct adjustment has finally been made. The same can be said of the Broncos, who failed to cover in eight straight amid a late adjustment. Even os, Denver appears to be making strides as the season closes and should cover a third straight game Sunday.

There's a chance we see some Paxton Lynch in this game, which would be a boon for Under bettors. It's not like Brock Osweiler is a star, so this game could clearly go Under no matter who plays QB for the Broncos. The Washington pass rush should have a field day with Denver's offensive line as well. The already banged-up Washington offense could be down more key players on Sunday, with Trent Williams ruled out, Samaje Perine not practicing Friday and Jamison Crowder questionable. I expect this to be a struggle for both offenses and love the Under here as a result.

Neither team is playing for a postseason berth, so the motivations are the same. With most other stats being equal, going with the Broncos and their NFL's top-ranked defense on a money line provides the value. The underdog Broncos win 47 percent of my simulations.