Early in the season, the Dolphins were an Under team and the Buccaneers were an Over team virtually every week. Recently, those trends have flipped, with Miami's poor defense pushing four straight Dolphins games Over and the Bucs not seeing much scoring in any of their games except by the Saints offense. With Mike Evans back, I think this game could push over, with the Bucs getting out to an early lead and Jay Cutler putting up garbage-time stats in the second half. The Bucs don't have a stout secondary, so this Over should stay in play most of the game no matter the score.

Now that the Dolphins have found some pep on offense, their defense has gone into the gutter. Relief comes in the form of Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in lieu of the injured Jameis Winston. Tampa Bay is averaging in single digits scoring the past three games, and Fitz did little in a 15-10 win last Sunday. Its defense isn’t much better, with a No. 26 rating. The team has yet to win straight up on the road, while the Dolphins are 2-1-1 ATS at home.

I liked the Bucs last week as home 'dogs, and I like them again here. The Miami offense is one of the worst in the league, ranking 26th in DVOA but last in points scored, 31st in yards per play and near the bottom of the league in several other metrics. The defense has given up more than 27 points in four straight games, including 40-plus twice (though one of those instances featured three defensive scores). The Bucs offense has sagged in recent weeks but should do better in this matchup, plus Mike Evans is back after a one-week suspension.