After the Bills' defense allowed 34 and 47 points the past two weeks, the staff decided to make a change on offense by benching QB Tyrod Taylor, who has thrown 10 TD passes and just three picks. The Nathan Peterman era now begins with both teams on two-game skids. This is the best reason to lay the rising points with the Chargers -- the Bills having a rookie QB make his first start on the road 2,600 miles away.

A Chargers game hasn't topped 37 points since Oct. 8, as their defense has held teams to 21 points or fewer in four straight games despite playing three of those on the road. The Bills have been an Over team lately, but the switch to the fifth-round rookie at quarterback limits their offensive upside. I also expect the defense to bounce back after getting routed in a road Thursday night game then against one of the league's best teams. This total should keep dropping going into Sunday, so get on it early.

How frequently does the newer L.A. team lose games by the skinniest of margins? Let me count the ways. This time, however, they get to unleash an outstanding pass rush against Buffalo rookie QB Nathan Peterman, suddenly promoted to starter after throwing all of 10 passes in his brief career. All bets are off if Chargers QB Philip Rivers gets mothballed, but he is expected to play after getting checked out for a possible concussion. The Peterman/Rivers comparison alone would be enough to side with the Chargers, but other matchups favor them as well.

This is a buy-low opportunity on the Bills coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Saints. Sean McDermott has been wildly impressive in his first year as coach, leading the team to a 5-4 record thus far. The Chargers struggle to put away teams week in and week out, and they've won by more than five just once this year. Expect another close game here, with the Bills defense generating key turnovers and having a shot at winning the game in a stadium that's proven to have no home-field advantage thus far in 2017.