The Bears have kept all three of their games Under the total, but I have a feeling they'll be forced to radically change their game plan when the Packers take it to them again. Last week the Packers looked sluggish at home against a winless Cincy squad, but let's give a lot of the credit to offensive lineman Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari being out. They both practiced on Tuesday and should play Thursday. The Packers have gone 13-3 to the Over in their last 16. Over is the top play here.

The Bears are staying competitive with their running game and defense. The passing game is the obvious Achilles heel and if they can’t find it between now and Lambeau, they could struggle bigtime against Green Bay. My bet is they don't discover an aerial attack. Lay the points.

I have the Packers winning by a dozen, so of course I'm laying the points. Green Bay is covering 59 percent of my simulations. The Bears have played well in both their home games, and horrific in their only road contest. Back the hosts.

The Bears have been all run and no pass this year, so the Packers defense knows what it has to do to win this game: stop the run. They did it last year in this matchup on a Thursday night, and while they've struggled against the run this year, they had to respect the passing games and quarterbacks of all their opponents to date. The Bears just beat the Steelers despite throwing for 84 yards; that's not going to cut it against the Packers in Lambeau. Getting some players back from injury would only strengthen Green Bay's outlook, but I'm willing to lay the 7 either way.