I'm doubling down on the Seahawks as I already have them at +5 and +190 on the moneyline. I'm grabbing +6.5 and +235 moneyline for the biggest play I've ever made on a single NFL game. Let's go Seahawks!

I'm doubling down on the Seahawks as I already have them at +5 and +190 on the moneyline. I'm grabbing +6.5 and +235 moneyline for the biggest play I've ever made on a single NFL game. Let's go Seahawks!

It's hard to lay this kind of price, but the Seahawks did not impress me last week versus Detroit. And their rich playoff history doesn't matter now. Atlanta's offense will be the best unit on the field. To protect against a backdoor cover, I'll play the money line as opposed to the spread.

This is a huge value spot behind the NFC’s strongest defensive team getting a bunch of key numbers in its favor Saturday. Seattle is third in the league in points allowed (18.2) and No. 5 in yards allowed (318.7). The Seahawks held the Lions to just 231 yards in last week’s 26-6 win. The Falcons have the leagues top scoring offense (33.8 ppg), but this is still a finesse team at the core that will be pushed to the end by a battle-tested Seattle club.

The NFC feels like a crapshoot in this round, and I think there’s value in taking the points with the experienced road teams over the home upstarts. The Falcons defense has played better in recent weeks, but their best games were against weak competition. The Seahawks have the offensive firepower to take advantage of Atlanta’s back seven, especially with Desmond Trufant done for the year. It also opens Russell Wilson to pull off a late backdoor cover if needed. Whoever wins this game, it should be a close one, so I’m more than happy taking the five points, especially against a team that was 3-5 ATS at home this year.

On paper, the Falcons have the offensive balance to give the Seahawks problems. They even have enough defensive pressure to disrupt Seattle's passing game. What it will come down to is the Seahawks' ability to "turn it on" defensively when it counts. And I’m still waiting to see what Matt Ryan can do in a pressure game, versus the kind of pressure Seattle brings. Take the points.

The Falcons are at home, which means it's time to play the Over. It's happened in all eight of their home games this season and in 13 of their 16 games overall. What makes the Falcons such a great Over team is not only because they average an NFL-best 33.8 ppg, but they also have a shaky defense that allows 25.4 ppg, which ranks 27th. The only question that may arise is Seattle's defense, but let's not get carried away with suggesting this is the same defense from the past three seasons. And without Earl Thomas patrolling, Atlanta's pass attack will continue to do what it's done all season at home and that's score.

The Seahawks weren't overly impressive in dispatching Detroit, but I think they've got a terrific chance to win outright in Atlanta. My simulations show Seattle winning 48 percent of the time, making this money line at +175 very attractive. Seattle already beat the Falcons, though that one was at home, and has the secondary to slow down Julio Jones and company. Also look for another big game from Thomas Rawls.