The Dolphins have won three straight against the Patriots in Miami and I think they can do it again here. Miami is locked in as a wild card, but with a win and KC loss the Dolphins can get the No. 5 seed, which means they'll play at Houston instead of Pittsburgh. That's a pretty good incentive. The Pats are playing for the No. 1 seed, but they lost at Miami in the same situation last year. I expect Miami to play its starters and go for the win, and I feel I've got almost 6-points of value in that scenario.

The Patriots need to go all-out to secure homefield advantage, while the Dolphins are in the playoffs but can't do better than a wild card. That explains the inflated line, but it's certainly in the Dolphins' best interests to try and win this game. If they can move up to the No. 5 seed, they'll face the Texans in the wild-card round; if they don't, a trip to Pittsburgh is in the cards. Expect their defense to rise to the challenge and keep this game competitive into the fourth quarter.