Cam Newton makes his return and I'm expecting him to play well and try to salvage the season in a still winnable division like Carolina did in 2014 at 7-8-1. The big help in doing so will be the Saints' weak defense. Their last three meetings have gone Over and the Saints have gone 7-0-1 to the Over in their last eight home games. The last two times Newton got to face defenses other than Denver or Minnesota, Carolina scored 33 at Atlanta and 46 vs. the 49ers.

The Panthers are 1-4 and they've failed to cover their past six road games. Yet oddsmakers and the public are treating them as if they resemble last year's juggernaut. True, Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart are expected to return Sunday. But the Saints are rested and recharged following their unlikely win at San Diego. New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following the bye.

The line clearly implies that Carolina is a far better team than New Orleans, even though the Panthers haven't looked good for much of this season. I have them rated much closer. Coming off a week of rest, the Saints figure to give the Panthers the same trouble through the air as they had in their loss to the Falcons. Playing a 1 p.m. road divisional game after a Monday night loss, I think they struggle, especially early on, making the Saints' first-half line another quality play. The Panthers may be able to come back late, but I don't see them winning by more than three.